BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83250
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/19/2009 11:22:52 AM
Kevin, I am out of 90% of my positions now, with a profit on 9 trades out of 10.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83252
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/19/2009 12:07:38 PM
Great news, dude.
I can exit now at ~2% gain, maybe 3% in one or two, so that is tempting.
It is better to make a small profit than incur a small loss ... I guess I'll decide at the end of the day.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83254
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/19/2009 3:08:33 PM
Well, my accounts are up about $17K from yesterday .... feels good .... too bad it wasn't all profit - I went around $10K the wrong way when the market was going up ....
The cross of the 5dma as an exit still works great .... I usually wait till the end of the day unless there is a violent cross like there was this morning on most of my positions ....
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83257
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/19/2009 4:53:26 PM
At the close I was up only about 1-2% on my trades. Not worth pulling the trigger just yet.
Profitable day, which is nice. I'll stay in for now, probably until Monday unless tomorrow really drops hard - then I'll cash out before any rebound.
I don't know if you have seen the price action filter thread I started, but the daily filter gave sell signals for both the SPY and QQQQ today. In the past 10 times it did this on SPY, the markets were down 8 times over the next few days. Weekly signal is still a BUY, so I will need to be respectful of the larger trend.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83258
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/19/2009 5:41:13 PM
Kevin, the stochastics charts you posted on the indexes sure seem to indicated that we are in for a reversal. But you may know the stats better than I do ..... and I always factor in the time of the month. There is statistically an upwards bias the last few days of the month .... things are kind screwed up next week with Thanksgiving thrown in and a shortened week ...... so I think there will be upwards window dressing pressure, especially if there is any more sell off in the very short term ......
Do you have any stats on bias during the Thanksgiving week?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83262
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
11/19/2009 9:28:44 PM
No compelling stats that I see - I looked at the weekly SPX numbers for each Thanksgiving week back to 1990, and there is a bias toward a positive outcome (+~0.9% from the previous week's close) but no clear preference for up or down. The average is skewed by last year's 12% run up that week.
Probably get out of my bears tomorrow.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83263
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/19/2009 10:02:19 PM
I still have sizable short positions in CAH and BKS. It would be nice to get out and take a pause.
If you get our of your bears, consider EWJ. It is tremendously oversold - the most oversold on my screen and most oversold according to TradingMarkets.
I will scale in tomorrow if it drops further. Country EFTs are the best reversion to the mean performers.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83273
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/20/2009 7:51:57 AM
Looks like you made the right move by waiting a day Kevin .....
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83274
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/20/2009 7:59:55 AM
I know - the dollar is rocking right now. Futures are all red. And with no major economics news releases today, and world markets already down, I think I am safe for today.
Will take what profit I can today, and get back into an almost all-cash position heading into next week. I still plan to hold onto my GNW stock, as I think it will break above 12 before the end of this year.
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donnelt
11 posts
msg #83276
- Ignore donnelt |
11/20/2009 9:28:29 AM
Tranny looks good for the $70 Put.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IYT&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p87306009755
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