BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83151
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/16/2009 6:42:58 PM
I added some SDS @ $35.75 and SKF @ 24.80
Shorted A CLF DISH DOW GRMN HBC mid or late day near their tops.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83156
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
11/16/2009 9:27:58 PM
I've been thinking (always a dangerous thing with me) ...
Going short this year has been pretty much a losing play for me - did OK timing oil and some commodity plays, but not the markets. Did have profitable short plays early in 1Q, but refused to believe that the rally was anything other than a trap, and consequently turned winners into losers.
Isn't one of Larry Connors tenets that for stocks trading above their 200 day MA, you only buy into weakness and sell into strength? By playing the inverse ETFs right now, are we violating that basic concept?
Because boy would I be happier playing long this year.
Kevin
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83166
- Ignore BarTune1
modified |
11/16/2009 10:46:40 PM
Exactly Kevin and I am kicking myself. That being said, I did manage to make a profit in August & September. Suffered a big loss in July and a small loss in October. All other months this have been profitable, and I made really good money the first 6 months of the year.
The SPY crossed the 200 dma early in July. I should have adapted and stressed buying the dips. I did so well shorting the first part of the year that I have found it hard to get away from it.
I still think you can short oversold stocks and indexes, its just that it is not as stong a play.
I got out of several profitable shorts in the past couple weeks (LMT, M, DRI, VRTX today), but have not hit any home runs for a while now.
PS: one more observation about oil, gold and other commodity plays - Connors research indicates that these are the least effective plays for mean reversion - country etfs are the best - As for commodities I can attest to his research in that I tried buying/shorting Nat Gas / Gold / Oil and made some money, but these things can stay overbought or oversold for a long long time and seem to be able to run for days .... hence, I don't play them much anymore, if I were to, I would consider them as a momentum play only with a trailing stop .....
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83193
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/17/2009 8:37:09 PM
Another rough day Kevin, I averaged into a few more short positions ....
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83194
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/17/2009 8:54:07 PM
Not so rough, actually - I was only down $96 (and $76 of that came from TYP, which I had never bought before and probably won't buy again).
Again, my GNW covered most of this, so I was only out about the cost of a good dinner today. I'll live.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83195
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/17/2009 9:02:00 PM
I'm getting a little extended - my own fault though - we really never did get the VIX signal in the first place - I can't argue with the shorts I have though .... alot are RSI(2) > 99 and change ... and I'm averaged in near their highs. Almost got out on AMZN at a profit today but missed it ....
Good news, Najarian pumped CLF today as his first move tomorrow .... its RSI(2) is over 99.5 ... I'm short 500 shares ... sure to move down off his recommendation - the guy is always wrong ....
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83205
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/18/2009 9:17:09 AM
Housing starts, new building permits, Core CPI, and CPI numbers released this morning are all worse than expected. Oil inventories at 10 AM as well.
Thinking it will be a red day today (perhaps wishful thinking on my part!).
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83222
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/18/2009 11:17:44 AM
I covered my DISH @ $20, had shorted 600 shares around $21.85 avg price - not a bad start.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83235
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/18/2009 8:00:02 PM
Well, all of my 3x bears were up today, as was my GNW stock - all green for a change.
Today was one of those days where both the VIX and SPX were red. Statistically, tomorrow will be an up day (about 0.5% or so - I posted on this in a previous thread). Hopefully initial claims numbers will suck, and we can make a little headway this week.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83240
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/18/2009 10:22:04 PM
The market IS rolling over Kevin - at least in the short term
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