curmudgeon
103 posts
msg #55919
- Ignore curmudgeon |
10/22/2007 7:40:50 PM
>>dynamic
The whole behavioral finance thing is intriguing. By drawing little straight lines from point A to point B on a chart (Martin Pring made a nice living writing books on how to draw little straight lines) all you're really doing is looking for a way to make sense of the problem. Like drawing a line in the sand; if the market crosses that line...you're gonna do something. Does the market see them?
Or fibonacci lines. Does the market see them?
Support and resistance? How many times does it bang on resistance before it can break through? Once? Twice? Three times? No matter what the market ends up doing there's an explanation.
It's all in your head ;)
And the heads all around you in the same stock.
But surely if everyone agrees the market makes fun of their collective wisdom. Computers are much faster at dishing out humility than we are. Vigilant sentinels scanning the market for consensus.
Yes. Dynamic is the right word.
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jrbikes
624 posts
msg #55923
- Ignore jrbikes |
10/22/2007 8:57:01 PM
MAN, can I get in on this? sure why not?
In that neat little book, someone said " there is only one side of the market, the right side"
I say stocks have no real value, only the value that you and I percieve it to have at any given point in time! and that is what we act on, no one can predict when it will go up and when it will go down, but you can achieve a certain sense of when this might happen, and that is the best you can do, but I will say this, there are really only 3 patterns, up, down, the one Im trading at any given point in time! and just when I think I got it right, BAM, the mrket makes a liar out of me!
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curmudgeon
103 posts
msg #55927
- Ignore curmudgeon |
10/22/2007 9:58:19 PM
Hands down this is the hardest thing I've ever done in my life. It ain't getting easier either. Who knows what cometh from the dark pools? Or when?
Algo and quant proggys are making trends become sheer walls...either you were in or you missed the straight up surge. Darvas box city. Surge, sideways...suge sideways.
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jrbikes
624 posts
msg #55928
- Ignore jrbikes
modified |
10/22/2007 10:14:48 PM
Man, you got that right, Ive said the same thing, but I now have a viable pattern that is on more times than off, so Im headed in the right direction, and anyway, if I give up now, I have waisted the last 5 years of my life, the number one lesson I have learned is this,( this crap aint hard, we just make it hard) candles, EMA(18) and a trend line!
what is so hard about that? (yeah right)
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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lockwhiz
206 posts
msg #55929
- Ignore lockwhiz
modified |
10/22/2007 10:31:05 PM
…I buy at support and sell at resistance …just like everyone else …therefore it is there…. a self-fulfilling prophecy. …you are right, this is easy ....but so aren’t bollinger bands…and stochastics …and RSI …. Moving averages …channels ….and candlesticks, (a doji firefly ,based on the chinese art of trading rice …what the hell am I doing????)…. and I have a ton of other views I need to look at, because are all “proven”…I can tweek and have these technicals interact like no-one else has ever done, for I finally have the bull by the balls,,,and then here comes that wild card …”NEWS”. There is a prophecy to follow there too … “buy on rumor sell on news”. Face it we are all part of the crowd looking for a pattern to decypher... we will even find a pattern on the side of a grilled cheese sandwhich, and sell it on e-bay… but in reality, we can’t predict for certain how a stock will perform ...…but we can see how it all happened with amazing accuracy !
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curmudgeon
103 posts
msg #55931
- Ignore curmudgeon |
10/22/2007 11:55:44 PM
I spent quite a bit of time with TradeStation and NeuroHell trying to find the grail. One thing I will say: it's not the indicator you use...it's how you set it.
If it "talks" to you that's all you can hope for.
IMHO. BBands are messy. Candlesticks are information overload. RSI is useless and slow. Stochs are ok. LinReg and channels overshoot too much making them slow. Fibonacci is coincidence. Idiot waves are idiotic. If volume confirms price why use it? Isnt the price all that matters? Did I miss anybody's buttons ? ;)
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #55932
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/23/2007 2:04:54 AM
Just remember what's on the chart is HISTORY!
You make money in the present, not the past.
Easy to identify what HAPPENED.
Trick is to properly identify WHAT IS HAPPENING!!
Only 3 choices, up, down, flat. How simple is that?
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welliott111
98 posts
msg #55963
- Ignore welliott111 |
10/23/2007 8:01:42 PM
curmudgeon,
So you use price alone as your "buy " "sell" signal?Sounds like a coin toss to me.
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jrbikes
624 posts
msg #55965
- Ignore jrbikes
modified |
10/23/2007 9:02:19 PM
Well said everyone, but alas, A Holy Grail indicator? does it exist?
Why yes, I believe it does! its called ( Hindsight )
Ive made a million from it, too bad the IRS doesnt know about it!
Oh yeah, acutually there is a Holy Grail, but if you were to find it, it would Kill you because it would be so pure!
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curmudgeon
103 posts
msg #55966
- Ignore curmudgeon |
10/23/2007 9:03:32 PM
All indicators are a derivative of price. So whatever indicator you like to use... as long as it's set right will interpret price in a way that "talks" to you.
Personally I use 3 time frames and and nothing more than moving averages. Moving averages smooth the price without adding funkiness you get from oscillators like MACD. It's fast and it's slow, depending on what I want to do and it's all in one system. This all runs in RadarScreen so I can scan a bunch stocks at one time and see only those in the setup zone.
Money management functions figure stops and position size according to acct equity, number of positions, margin, pct risk and sends it out by global variable to the strategy which manages stops and exits. I already did the thinking so all the information is figured out for me in real time and I can just see the banana and push the button.
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