SFMc01
358 posts
msg #55703
- Ignore SFMc01 |
10/15/2007 9:11:42 AM
Is there a way that has proven reliable for predicting the opening of the market? Either in general or for a specific stock?
I use Ameritrade Streamer and prior to the market open, they indicate trades they are aware of, but, say it is not 100% reliable. For example, pre-trading on Ameritrade is indicarting premarket activity is UP on several stocks I follow. That says nothing about the strength of the opening and how long this UP momentum may continue. Also, the general trend of the market is important to day trading, and, Ameritrade says nothing about that.
Through your experience, has anyone found some tools or indicators that are helpful with these concerns ... opening trend for individulal stocks and the market in general?
Thank you ... Steve
|
SFMc01
358 posts
msg #55710
- Ignore SFMc01 |
10/15/2007 2:10:15 PM
For me, today was another example where the pre-openig trades of most stocks on my watchlist were clearly indicating an up-trend, and, 5 minutes after the market opened, almost all were down.
|
TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #55714
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/15/2007 7:29:48 PM
Why predict?
Trading is about properly identifying WHAT IS HAPPENING rather than what may happen.
|
luc1grunt
622 posts
msg #55723
- Ignore luc1grunt |
10/15/2007 8:25:51 PM
Amen....took me a while to learn that, but Amen.
|
curmudgeon
103 posts
msg #55732
- Ignore curmudgeon |
10/15/2007 9:39:15 PM
Predictions are for stock rockstars, talking heads on TV and option gamblers.
|
SFMc01
358 posts
msg #55886
- Ignore SFMc01 |
10/21/2007 9:55:12 PM
This is all well and good, but, I often by at /near market close intending to sell at or shortly after open ... as many others do. Recently, if I had had some sort of guestimate of whether there were significant buying or selling pressures, it may have helped my decision process at the market open.
If we can determine this somehow ... great. If not, then we all just have to live with it. On the other hand, to just dismiss the desirability of being able to guestimate based on some criteria ... such as after-market and/or before market pressures or other means... by insinuating that trying is only for rockstars is, IMHO, discouraging and a put-down to those who might attempt to find the light. Maybe today, we can't. But maybe tomorrow, some one smarter than me may be able to gain insights into the now unforeseeable future. I was always taught that "there is no such thing as a stupid question."
|
curmudgeon
103 posts
msg #55888
- Ignore curmudgeon |
10/21/2007 11:17:34 PM
I'm sorry I didnt mean to insinuate. I thought I just flat out said it ;)
If you're gonna look for light why not get a decent trading platform and watch the 24 hr. SPY or Q's and maybe use some data mining techniques and curve fit to your hearts desire. I've tried it. It doesn't work. Savitsky Golay, nested polynomial bands, yada yada yada. Calculus works on paper. Just ask all the egghead quants WTF happened in Aug.
Like TRO has said a million times....it's not what you trade, it's how you trade it.
You and I are little fish in a big angry ocean....there ain't jack we can do but keep swimming, eat when the opportunity provides, and not get eaten.
|
lockwhiz
206 posts
msg #55896
- Ignore lockwhiz |
10/22/2007 9:31:46 AM
IMHO ...
... we all know there is no "holy grail" for predicting the future ... ... but we all believe in trends, and that technical analysis is a way to give us the edge, else we wouldn't be here. The psychology of crowd behavior is something that cannot be pushed aside. If there were no interpretations of price movement and volume swings, then there would be no changes in the price of the stock, ......it would be purely based on the PE , and not move between quarterly results....... thankfully, we do see fluctuations that gives us monetary rewards by using the art of trading....we are all part of it.... we are part of the crowd. Some people will never get it ... others will have an uncanny ability to "predict". The "happening now" scenario, is still predicting ... unless you want to be a mere "watcher" ... and not a participant. If you buy and or sell an equity, you are guilty of attempting to predict the future.... else you wouldn't be buying/selling.... Watching the ticks every second is a way to help "time the market" .....With this, you are still trying to predicting .... Interpreting what you think is the top or bottom.... trying to understanding the buying and selling pressures.... and seeing them develop and fade.... It’s not the chart ... its how we (the crowd) are interpreting it .... it is how you interpret the crowd ...
|
curmudgeon
103 posts
msg #55899
- Ignore curmudgeon |
10/22/2007 11:35:17 AM
From a TA perspective there is one constant. There is always enough noise to frustrate the piss out of you.
Am I saying that it's never a good idea to have a "handle" on what you think might happen? Nope. It's a very good idea to have an idea where the trend will head but as far as ACTIONABLE signals that predict movement in a fast paced trading environment...nyet.
|
lockwhiz
206 posts
msg #55901
- Ignore lockwhiz |
10/22/2007 1:43:31 PM
...absolutely true !
...on more little bit of the obvious.
Any time you sell, at what you think is a "good selling point"... someone else is buying that same point as their "good entry point".... I'm glad we all don't think alike, and it is why the dynamics of trading, is just that .....dynamic...ever changing. Trade that way.
|