nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60143
- Ignore nikoschopen |
3/3/2008 3:32:57 PM
That's it. The reason for optimism should fade. Shorting the market with tight stop.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #60144
- Ignore EWZuber |
3/3/2008 3:36:31 PM
VIX breaking the 10 HR.MA as support. Next stop the 15 HR.MA.
It needs to finish this negative half of the cycle on the Hourly Chart.
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maxreturn
745 posts
msg #60147
- Ignore maxreturn |
3/3/2008 5:42:11 PM
More ping pong. SPY held support above the support zone of 131.73-132.86. Will we go back up to test the upper part of the range again around 139.61? WTH knows? Really getting tired of this range. Think I'll trade forex :)
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #60167
- Ignore EWZuber |
3/4/2008 6:24:09 AM
For you guys that can trade at will, I wouldn't worry about how far a move will go intraday. If the entry is made at a good technical point then that move can be ridden until it changes.
For instance, once a support level is violated it can be very difficult to determine before hand how many more support areas will be violated before a bottom is put in. So that position can be held short until the next buy signal indicates it is time to cover.
To keep the odds in your favor it is typically best to trade shorter term charts in phase with the longer term charts.
In other words, if you are shorting positions on the 5 minute chart , it is best to have the Hourly and Daily Charts both in distribution phases.
Under those conditions accumulation phases on the 5 minute chart will be brief and of low amplitude, putting the odds well in your favor.
I would post a chart but it's late.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60179
- Ignore nikoschopen |
3/4/2008 1:02:34 PM
I would like to think otherwise. Although I use the longer term charts for profit targets, they're never sought for placing stop-loss. My belief is that a loser should be cut short when it's small while allowing the winners to ride. Flipping charts will only give one more excuse for not pulling the trigger: "Should I bail out at the next support level at 1300? Oh, but wait, there's another support just below 1300 at 1294? But...how about 1290...that looks even better."
Well, why place stop if you don't plan to honor it? I've seen so many trader who got wiped out in the wake of the tech bubble simply because they fail to pull the trigger when the loss was small.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60181
- Ignore nikoschopen |
3/4/2008 1:27:29 PM
Might I also add that in this topsy-turvy environment it's usually not very ideal to wait for the signal on the longer-term charts. Unfortunately, the market would more often reverse than continue because this is the time when the institutions unload their wares to the unsuspecting public.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #60183
- Ignore EWZuber |
3/4/2008 1:57:07 PM
nikoschopen, thats not what I am saying at all. I would never suggest that kind of strategy.
I was talking about a SHORT position, not a long position. Consequently when support levels are violated that is a good thing.
I was not advocating 'flipping charts' either.
CST is a highly disciplined system, more disciplined than any other I have seen.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #60187
- Ignore EWZuber |
3/4/2008 4:08:59 PM
Looks like the VIX will drop down to it's 50 HR.MA at 24.50 tomorrow, so maybe a little gap up in the morning for the indexes.
Also, COMP Hourly Chart has begun a new accumulation phase, but the
Daily Chart is still in a distribution phase. Consequently if we do get a gap up tomorrow morning I would not expect it to hold up.
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maxreturn
745 posts
msg #60188
- Ignore maxreturn |
3/4/2008 4:28:29 PM
Well, the saga continues. Bulls were lying in wait just below 131.73 support on the SPY. Looks to me like we get at least a day or two follow through to the upside. On to forex.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #60192
- Ignore EWZuber |
3/4/2008 5:55:17 PM
max, It might be fast and violent fueled by short covering but at this point it doesn't look like it will have any staying power.
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