rfrost13
5 posts
msg #64142
- Ignore rfrost13 |
6/21/2008 7:58:16 AM
Mr. Trendsurfer, tremendous appreciation for this, words can't express. Good coaches are hard to come by. I will be working on this for a while to get etched into my head, I must change some habits I was using that was not working... Thanks again.
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rfrost13
5 posts
msg #64196
- Ignore rfrost13 |
6/22/2008 11:25:38 PM
Okay Mr. Trendsurfer been working on this for hours now and reality is starting to sink in, I have been trying to buy on low rsi with stops way to loose and hitting the buy button way to often. Pretty much just opposite of what you said in the above "Buying the equity when it is going UP!
Selling the equity when it is going DOWN!
Apply RISK management to the equity!". I got a long way to go but just maybe it is turnaround time.
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slotmarket
59 posts
msg #64257
- Ignore slotmarket |
6/23/2008 9:34:23 PM
Let's see how the top 20 strongest stocks from TrendSurfer's scan did today.
Scan is from after last Friday's close to see how they performed today.
PDO, FPP, ROYL, JRCC, PCX, KOSN, ENER, BEXP, CLR, MEE, OSTK, NOG, ANR, SQM, SQNM, GTE, GDP, UTSI, CSIQ, GMXR.
16 went up and 4 went down. 6 of the advancing stocks went up over 5%.
The 20 weakest stocks were PFB, LNG, DSL, TGIC, CRBC, TIXC, IMB, STSA, GRZ, TSFG, NX, UCBH, RDN, BKUNA, UAUA, ABK, FED, ATSK, AAI, LCC.
18 fell, 1 up and 1 even. 14 of the declining stocks fell over 5%.
On a day in which the market was essentially flat, the strongest RS group produce 80% winners and the weakest RS group produced 90% losers.
Last week the SP500 fell 42 points. I ran the scan with a date offset of 6 and the top 20 strongest stocks produced 16 winners and 4 losers with 8 of the winners up over 20% for the week. The weakest 20 all fell for the week with 9 dropping over 10%.
It would be interesting to see how they perform on a day the market has a big move up or down. With this little amount of evidence so far, I see a lot of merit with this methodology.
Thank you miketranz for starting this thread and thank you TrendSurfer for sharing the filter.
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lizzydog
32 posts
msg #64264
- Ignore lizzydog |
6/23/2008 11:15:05 PM
Great information TrendSurfer and Slotmarket. Looking at the charts of
PCX, FPP and UTSI What made these stocks go down What information from the charts will it tell us?
Thanks
lizzy
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rtucker
318 posts
msg #64265
- Ignore rtucker
modified |
6/23/2008 11:18:53 PM
Here is a Relative Strength type scan that picks up those who have put in at least one streak in the last 60 days where the close is consistently above yesterdays low. (some people, myself included, sometimes use yesterdays low as a stop)
I'm looking for two to run again. MTL and FSLR . Both "in the past" have run strong. (MTL does look "toppy" to me)
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miketranz
961 posts
msg #64285
- Ignore miketranz |
6/24/2008 12:37:47 PM
I really like the top 20 stocks of the scan.The big moneys flowing into them.Good job.Now my question to you is,where do you enter? What time frame are your trading? Whats your average holding time? Where do you cut your losses? Thanks,Mike.....
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ludowillems
111 posts
msg #64298
- Ignore ludowillems |
6/24/2008 5:41:06 PM
trendSurfer,Rtucker,
Remarkable filter(s), to say the least ! Stocks where the MA's are almost parallel, slope of MA(15)= slope of MA(50) etc, give the smoothest and most predictable price evolution. Is there a way to incorporate this in this filters? Please comment on this extra line: I included the average day range, to find stocks with a rather "steep" upward movement.
Trend Surfer, If you would decide to continu outside this forum, I would appreciate to be included in your private list.
fetcher
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slotmarket
59 posts
msg #64313
- Ignore slotmarket |
6/25/2008 3:44:04 AM
TrendSurfer,
I'm too tired right now to give you a proper reply, will do so tomorrow.
The strongest RS stocks group were hit today. Roughly 80% down.
The weakest RS group had more winners than the than the strongest group.
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maxreturn
745 posts
msg #64316
- Ignore maxreturn |
6/25/2008 8:39:45 AM
Hello Slotmarket. I'll take the liberty of responding for Trendsurfer since I believe our styles are quite similar. As TS indicated at some point even the high relative strength stocks will turn. That's why it is SO important to read what the broad market is doing. In mid May the SPX was stalling close to it's 200 day moving average. It was also close to the 50% fib level drawn from the October highs to the March lows. In addition, the other two indicators I follow pointed to a high likelihood of another leg down. So at that point I shifted my focus to Low RS stock to either short or buy puts on. To be sure you can still catch some winners on the long side but the longer the broad market declines, the fewer candidates you'll find and the more failures you'll experience. It's all about putting the odds in your favor. I would much rather have the wind at my back. HTH.
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trek
72 posts
msg #64321
- Ignore trek |
6/25/2008 10:21:32 AM
Here is a filter that is my take on Darvas style momentum stocks. I would appreciate any advice from Mike, TrendSurfer or anyone else on ways to improve the entry and exits with the pullbacks or stronger RS stocks.
Fetcher[
Set{hi52w, high 52 week high}
Set{lo52w, low 52 week low}
Set{hi/lo-Ratio, hi52w / lo52w}
SET{X, ATR(20) / CLOSE}
SET{ATR%, X * 100}
SET{VolDiff, Avgvol(20) - AvgVol(90)}
SET{y, VolDiff / AvgVol(90)}
SET{Vol-Increase%, y * 100}
and add column Vol-Increase%
sort by column 5 descending
set{options?, count(optionable > -1,1)}
and add column options?
Show stocks whose price is near the 3 year high and AvgVol(20) is above 100000 and volume is above 50000 and close is above 3 AND hi/lo-Ratio IS GREATER THAN 1.85
and market is not otcbb and add column AvgVol(90) and add column AvgVol(20) and add column high 3 year high and add column ma(30) and add column ATR% and add column hi/lo-Ratio and add column industry description AND DRAW DARVAS BOX and draw high 3 year high and do not draw hi/lo-ratio and draw ema(30) and chart is candlestick and draw ma(50) and add column market and draw adx(10) and draw macd(12,26,9)
/*End*/
]
This filter has given some good picks. However, Darvas' method of buying the stocks on a breakout of the top box and setting the stop just under the top of the box has stopped me out of stocks that went on to give great returns. That's why I'm asking for any help with a better entry method.
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