moqual
38 posts
msg #59309
- Ignore moqual |
1/26/2008 3:02:02 PM
Please visit my page, and let me know your thoughts
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2681385
Thanks
Andrew
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moqual
38 posts
msg #59370
- Ignore moqual |
1/29/2008 4:20:32 PM
Tracing out the ABC very nicely!
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jbrtrader
32 posts
msg #59387
- Ignore jbrtrader |
1/30/2008 2:43:26 AM
Glad you started an Elliott thread,I'll add it to my fav's list.It seems most Elliotticians are counting this ABC as a Zig Zag 5-3-5.I have been counting it as a 3 wave ABC abc x abc with a possible completion of an A wave low to 1274 area.Im using the daily and weekly to arrive at that.Until I saw your chart with the Diagonal scenario,I just couldn't see a 5 wave structure in the first A wave.I'm open to the idea of a flat pattern 3-3-5 which could surprise many that are counting on total failure at 1400-1440 on the S&P.A flat could take it back to the highs or slightly over in a B wave up and last 4-5 months.It would play well for the election time frame as well,then the big C wave down or maybe not.
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moqual
38 posts
msg #59403
- Ignore moqual |
1/30/2008 7:25:54 PM
Jbrtrader,
Nice to see someone interested!
Correct, wave 4 is tracing out a Zigzag.
The minimum target for C was 12615 which was reached today, so we may have started 5 down already.
After this A wave down is complete we should follow with B up to test or break the October highs, if in fact we trace out a Flat.
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starfill
8 posts
msg #59425
- Ignore starfill |
1/31/2008 5:32:22 PM
Greetings, so glad to see some Elliot posts!
my question is if you label the wave 3 ending at July high, where is your wave 1 ending? you know, wave 4 low can not below wave 1 high as an Elliot rule.
to correctly use Elliot Wave, I would at least to label the bigger waves and sub waves starting at least back to the start of 2002-2003 low, and then figure out the relationships of different waves of different degrees.
I have an AAPL example on 12/17/07 to predict its minimum 50% retracement level while it was at 190s.
http://i15.tinypic.com/71eehk5.gif on 12/17/07
http://i8.tinypic.com/8dxc45e.gif on 1/15/08
The beauty of Elliot waves is that if you draw waves on some of the major leading stocks and find out that they all in major resistance levels either on wave 5 or wave 3 ending, then you know that the market is about to fall.
last November, I found this on stocks such as AAPL, GS, GOOD, BIDU, etc.
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starfill
8 posts
msg #59427
- Ignore starfill |
1/31/2008 6:10:38 PM
http://i31.tinypic.com/htthy8.gif
Andrew,
the chart link is one I did on 11/26/07 for DOW.
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moqual
38 posts
msg #59443
- Ignore moqual |
2/1/2008 6:20:17 PM
Starfill,
Thanks for the posts,
You are correct, but I only wanted to focus on the last 9 months showing the start of the bear market. It would be hard to see the current wave count if I went back to 2001.
I have Wave 1 completion at the March 2004 high and Wave 2 completion at the October 2004 low.
Nice work on AAPL and DJIA
You can email me at dru8923@yahoo.com if you want to discuss further
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optiongurus
18 posts
msg #59445
- Ignore optiongurus |
2/2/2008 9:17:12 AM
Hey guys, like all of your charts for the longer term. I love Elliot Wave and base most of my trading on it. Have any of you thought about trading the legs within the the legs? I usally trade the smaller leg 3 within the bigger leg 3. Do you any of you use anything else with the Elliot Wave? I am always looking to improve my methods.
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moqual
38 posts
msg #59489
- Ignore moqual |
2/5/2008 10:07:15 PM
-370 on the DOW
What a day!
optiongurus:
You can always trade the third wave whether it be wave C or wave 3, but you have to make sure your count is correct or you will get tossed all over the place. It's much harder to project corrective waves, especially when complex.
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optiongurus
18 posts
msg #59532
- Ignore optiongurus |
2/7/2008 2:36:33 PM
moqual, yes I have found out through experience that if you get the wrong leg its a bumpy ride to say the least. I have got it down pretty well to about 90% accuracy in picking the correct waves, the other 10% of the time when I'm wrong my stop losses kick me out. The Elliot wave is a true guide to riding these stocks though. Today has been a good day, love this bumpy market, took out 50% and another 50% on 106 contracts so far. Been a great day!
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