mb504
29 posts
msg #59611
- Ignore mb504 |
2/11/2008 2:00:47 PM
moqual, I wish there were a way to post a chart from a different system in this forum...
Anyhow, I think that we are beginning the C wave (upward this week) of 4. (12769) or slightly higher...
I say this because
1) Todays Bar is bouncing off the 61.8 level of the last pivotal wave.
2) Todays Bar is 61.8 in time of wave A (good for an ending of Wave B)
3) Wave 4 is typically (longer in time) than wave 2 - Don't be quick to enter a Wave 4 until end confirmed...(12067)
4) Option Expiration is the end of this week--manipulators want to burn some of the short sellers before turning south again...
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jbrtrader
32 posts
msg #59632
- Ignore jbrtrader |
2/11/2008 8:03:02 PM
moqual,
I just finished visiting your Stockcharts Elliott Wave page to see how you had the DJIA waves unfolding.Just wanna point out one important thing I noticed with the wave 1(green label) 12724 low and the wave 4(green label)12767.Looks like wave 4 did enter into wave 1,that count looked very possible when I last looked at your chart back on the 29th but now that price has clearly went straight up to the upper channel line and into the zone of wave 1,I don't know, I'm still seeing it as an a,b,c [A] to11,640 low and now building on either [B] or X .If its an X then [A] would be left simply as abc leading down to the 11,640 low.From what I'm seeing and hearing from most traders it seems the X factor or a 1,2,3,4,5 down is most popular right now and fundamentally and technically I see where they're coming from but the market sometimes has it way of surprising..
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moqual
38 posts
msg #59670
- Ignore moqual |
2/13/2008 4:30:19 PM
mb504, you can send me your chart to dru8923@yahoo.com
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moqual
38 posts
msg #59671
- Ignore moqual |
2/13/2008 4:32:39 PM
jbrtrader,
Those counts are valid, but remember, wave 4 overlaps wave 1 in a diagonal.
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jbrtrader
32 posts
msg #59674
- Ignore jbrtrader |
2/13/2008 6:49:35 PM
In a diagonal wave 4 almost always overlaps wave 1,I was referring to green wave 4 outside of your diagonal.Maybe I'm looking at your pattern wrong,is the diagonal I see on your chart part of wave 1 shown in green.?It's a small overlap but its also visible on the weekly chart..
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moqual
38 posts
msg #59684
- Ignore moqual |
2/14/2008 12:00:31 PM
I think you are referring to the overshoot on 2?
BTW, target from yesterday reached to the exact dollar. DJIA down 105 as I'm typing.
Thanks for the votes!
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mb504
29 posts
msg #60516
- Ignore mb504 |
3/15/2008 9:12:14 PM
W4???
I noticed that the DOW fell short in the "time factor" to W1, meaning that Wave 3 is shorter in "time" than Wave1. However, the NASDAQ W3 was the expected 1.618% (typical Wave3).
Who is the leader here? If it is DOW, then we may have a completed ABC and the correction is "nearly" over.... BUT, if NASD is the leader, W3 has completed and W4 is in progress but looking near complete...(a trade below NASD 2168 would signal that W4 has completed and is not an "Irregular Flat W4 correction just finishing the B Wave"....
If 2168 is breached, it will probably be within the next week (maybe Mon or Tues). Then the DOW with a short W3 in time and price to W1 (which is a bit unusual) should follow the NASD into a 5th and final "lengthy" Wave5.
With the negative vibs taking place in the market, probably the NASD will lead the DOW into W5.
Note: In 1973 (the last fuel crisis), the DOW began dropping in Jan 1973 (100 Wks--46.59% before recovery) Up until now, the DOW has only dropped 18.05%. Back in 1973 it was only fuel giving us the headache. Just look at what else has been added to the mix...
Look out belooooooooowww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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jbrtrader
32 posts
msg #60553
- Ignore jbrtrader |
3/17/2008 1:50:24 PM
mb504
I'd say the Comp is the closest to an actual impulse out of the 3.The 4th wave ended as a triangle on 2/27 from my count and looks to be the start of the 5th underway from 2/28,currently starting a 3rd within this 5th.The biggest wave on the Comp so far has been the 3rd but the 5th could end up being the largest if it extends which is very possible as wave 3 was pretty average with no exaggerated subdivisions.The Dow and S&P are tracing out in ABC moves but will likely be equally destructive in the end when all the selling is done..
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mb504
29 posts
msg #60569
- Ignore mb504 |
3/17/2008 3:17:47 PM
That looks accurate JB, thanks.
A close below 2168 will confirm that W3 of 5 is underway.... Some of my Shorts are not giving up just yet. But when 2168 is taken out, they will probably fall as well...
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jbrtrader
32 posts
msg #60616
- Ignore jbrtrader |
3/18/2008 3:47:58 PM
Todays rally delays the 3rd of 5th,leaning more towards an inverted flat from 3/10 up to now which could carry on a bit more maybe 2270 on the Comp,so back to still working within wave 2
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