| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · the best of Mary4Money...... | << 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up |
| Arooj 15 posts msg #52658 - Ignore Arooj modified |
6/29/2007 8:14:46 AM To preface, I am a SF rookie, learning from the pros here, simply too many to mention but all of whom I'm grateful to. I understand the controversy regarding some of the posts from M4M, AKA Stockbottomholygrail on Yahoo boards. I have spent some time in correcting some of his grammatical errors that I myself have been guilty of, and I present the following without any editorial comments, save one: We know that TRO has given M4M credit for introducing him to the use of RSI(2), which in the right hands can be quite lucrative. If this turns out to be his only contribution, it may be a valuable one. Exactly how to predict stock and market direction SBHG 6/13/07 How to know what direction the market and stocks will go and how to tell if the bottom or top is a true reversal of the trend- it’s all about volume. If the volume is light at tops and heavy going down into the lows, it will either be a bear market reversal into a bull market, like you saw the 2 months before the NASDAQ hit its bottom - or it will be higher volume on tops than bottoms like you saw from the NASDAQ high in 2000 till it got to July 2002. The people who control the market need to control two things: 1. Your fear 2. Stock volume Volume gives them the smart volume - so during the last 5 days we have seen a lot of sudden dropping from the highs on big volume to the low’s volume being high- this is how they manipulate the market with the illusion that the market is going to crash and how they get you to give up the shares cheaper than you got them and they essentially get them near the lows. I call this the bear rollercoaster syndrome - they repeatedly take you down to each bottom very fast over and over, so after doing this for 4-7 times in 2 weeks, you want to stay out of the market because of fear of losing more money. This is what 90% of the people are wrong even in an obvious bull market. They make their big money fast playing the options - selling the bulk of their calls off at light volume tops and reversing to heavy put buying, so they can profit really big when it hits bottom. Then, they cash in their puts at the bottom and buy those cheap calls again - the reason you see this incredible increase in option volume during the last week before option expiration is because they make the most money since the options are at their cheapest point. I would be surprised if we saw a giant short squeeze on the NASDAQ on Thursday and Friday because in this roller coaster game they play they have taken out most of the sells and their is nobody to challenge them when they move the markets up fast. If you look at the last August low you will see they did the fear factor thing with you for 3 straight weeks and then moved up really fast. They also did it for about 10 days near the 3/5/07 low - here they were able to break the QQQQs 3 year high consolidation and move it parabolic above 43.50 - and over the course of the last five days here where actually AAPL and the QQQQs have traded in a very narrow range. All this becomes very obvious if you notice that in these last 5 days the QQQQ has had 4 big volume days down and one up, yet we haven’t broke they $46 support. If you want to make a fortune, buy the July QQQQ option for 47-49, RIMM 175-190, AAPL 130-145, and GOOG 530-580 - you make your biggest money off these roller coaster bottoms like we are in now, If you had bought the March and April calls near the 3/5/07 lows for these stocks, you would have made 500-10000% on your options, playing them at strike prices 2-6 levels above the option strike prices equivalent to the stock’s low price. Think about it, even on the 5/24/07 low, GOOG went 470-528, QQQQ went 44-48, AAPL went 92-128, RIMM 152-170. If you look at the last week before expiration - you will see that you will either be at a high or a low and what will happens a low will turn into a high and a high will turn into a low- from the last 1-5 days before exp. to the next 1-5 days before exp. How to know exactly where the dead bottom is? 6/19/2007 12:34:30 PM “I use the rsi(2) daily for getting very near to the bottom like the SPY and QQQQ on 6/7. I always use the 2-day intraday linear regression. Usually the QQQQ will go down 0.15 - 0.30 the day after rsi(2) reaches a low. On 6/7, it closed at 46.35 with an rsi(2) of 2.9%, and on the next day it gapped down intraday to the exact bottom of the 2 day LR channel to 46.16 (which you can read before the open on Esignal). When it got there, the QQQQ went up and down, bouncing off the LR for 1-2 hours; what you do then is use a 3-10 min rsi(10) to see if you have a bottom positive divergence (which it had, along with AAPL at 116 and GOOG at 500). This is where you buy your options for the next month (for July’s strikes, in the following ranges): QQQQ 47-51 GOOG 530-600 AAPL 120-150. When you do this, you usually make 700-10000% on all the options, with the highest levels paying off the highest % gain. Let’s look at RIMM; on its last earning it dropped from 148 to <129, and at 129 we had the same bottom low on the daily rsi(2) at <2%. On the rsi(10) it demonstrated a large positive divergence at the bottom LR, so I bought the May 140-155 calls at an average of $33 per contract. When it hit its top of 155.24 on 5/9, I cashed them in for an average of $1300 per contract. Daily rsi(2) at 99.9% (which you have to read live) hit the dead top of the 2 day intraday LR at 155.24 and had a big negative divergence using the 5 min rsi(10). There you go guys, now you can make millions playing options off each top and bottom.” {in another Yahoo post, he mentions the following, which is paraphrased} "The best call options for the QQQQ are at strike prices two levels ABOVE the strike price equal to its low (at or just out of the money calls). For GOOG, RIMM, and AAPL, the best strike choices are between 2-6 levels ABOVE the strike price equal or nearly equal to its low price. The favored level is 0.05, which is the $5 contract. Don't pay more than $50/contract." I will give you my secrets in predicting earnings: 1. Look for a good shift to either the call or put side (ADBE has shifted to 95% calls last week). 2. Look for the volume to be >1.5 times its average volume and if the stock is near its 2-4 day low you have a 70% chance of good earning. If you are near the top for the last 2-4 days, you have a 70% chance of negative earnings. The high or low has been within 1-5 days before expiration It’s actually been the high for 6-7 months and also it will be this month- the reason is the smart money can get those options really cheap because of time decay- I got the QQQQ 47 s for 0.17 and the 48s for 0.03. I have made an average of 700% on each move of the QQQQ up and down by playing $2.00 to $2.50 out of the money. I bought them this last time at the QQQQ 46.20 and the 47s have gone from 0.17 to 0.38 (going to 1.20), and the 48s are from 0.03 to 0.06 (going to about 0.55). 6/5/07 It’s very easy - the people behind the big moves on dndn are not interested in the stock itself. They are interested in the options which can make 5-100 times more money. You know when this stock is going to move by watching the call and put volume and you wait for it to change dramatically and you buy in the direction of the options. In the days before it ran from $5 to $25, the options jumped 5 times in volume and 10-1 in favor of the calls. Same thing when it was near 18 before it fell to 5 - there was a 400% increase in options, with 85% of the volume in put options. Now the same thing is happening again on the call side, meaning we go up from here- the last 3 days the calls = 140000 contracts and the puts 32000 and they will stay here until they get enough calls to control the stock going up. 6/4/07 What I do is use the QQQQ as an indicator to get to the bottom of an optionable stock - you can get this on askresearch.com for free. What makes my system better than anything ever invented is the fact that I also use a weekly volatility indicator to choose the stock. I like to have >5% movement for the last 52 weeks. Here is what I use for QQQQ bottoms: stock is optionable and ema(5)above ema(10) and ema(10) above ema(20) and ema(20) above ema(50) and ema(50) above ema(200) and rsi(2) below 20 and average volume (100) above 200000 and volume above 50000 and set{wm%, weekly atr(52)/weekly ema(52)} and wm% above 0.05 and add column wm% sort column 5 descending The ema assures you have the strongest stocks in big uptrends, and the wm% gives you the stocks that will move up the best. The larger the wm%, the bigger jump in the stocks when they move up. On 5/24, we hit the bottom of the QQQQ at 46, with the daily rsi(2) at 8% (and you have to read these values live with tabular results). To be sure that the QQQQ was at its bottom intraday, I used the 30 and 60 min rsi(2) which were both <2% at $46 while the bottom was in. 10/27/06 Go to ragingbull.com on any stock- you will see a box in the upper left hand corner. Put SNDK in the box- this will take you to the message boards- you will see the blue headers above the messages- click on I watch. Here you can do 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, or any day out of the last month. Use the 1 week on SNDK. What you want to see, on a big dropdown or the low rsi(2) bottom, is Dark blue bars, which means institutions are interested in buying the stock. At the bottom you want 70-100% dark blue. On a bottom of a stock you will want to see more buying than selling - the more dark blue the better. On SNDK it was 60% buying and 40% selling. Look at TIE and CAT using the 1 month chart - massive bottom buying for TIE at $23 and CAT at $59-60. Dark red bars means they want to sell. (At tops you will see 70-90% dark red sells) After a stock has hit the top or bottom you will see about 50/50 on both dark red and dark blue- this means the stock will continue in the up or down trend it is in. |
| Koronbock 201 posts msg #52663 - Ignore Koronbock |
6/29/2007 9:25:40 AM Arooi, thanks for the thoughtful "editing" of Mary's posts. Obviously we need a "translator" for Mary's posts, which is a novelty here (g). While this makes some of his postings more legible, I doubt that it will be helpful for many. The guy is just too disorganized and chaotic. There is no coherent and thoughtful approach as far as I can see. Thanks for your effort anyway. Cheers, |
| maxreturn 745 posts msg #52664 - Ignore maxreturn |
6/29/2007 9:27:08 AM Arooj...NICE JOB! I could actually get through all of the "refined" postings without having my head twist off. |
| karennma 8,057 posts msg #52674 - Ignore karennma |
6/29/2007 12:45:22 PM Thanks, Arooj. I've never bothered reading M4M posts. NOW I do!! They're definitely worth reading ... once you understand them. Thanks! :>) |
| karennma 8,057 posts msg #52675 - Ignore karennma |
6/29/2007 1:43:50 PM Here's another "best of "M4M" (followed by my comments) ... bull market wont be over until 11-08 << >>Post Follow-up MARY4MONEY - MARY4MONEY 6/27/2007 4:26:35 AM and you will see a big move up in next 18 trading days--on the yahoo message boards-on 10 different stocks i had over 2000 messages detailing exactly how the stock market worked with the rsi-2 and options deleated last night-big brother who control the market must of got nervious- dont you think its strange no body had ever published a book detailing the rsi-2--there is another easy way to tell if we are at the bottom of the qqqq= overlay the qqqq with the vix- they are exact opposites- vix rsi >90 qqqq near 10 vix rsi 10 qqq >90 right now the vix is at 97% and the qqqq at 10%- get ready for a giant short squeeze in next 3 trading days $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ How astute of M4M. I will reserve my political comments, as they are best kept to myself. However, regarding M4M's comment: "dont you think its strange no body had ever published a book detailing the rsi-2-" Actually, everyone who's been a long-standing member of SF is familiar with the "secret" of the RSI(2). I've been using SF since very early 2003, when TRO (therumpledone) first started posting the miracle of the RSI(2). Ahhh yes! Those were the good ol' days. Muddy, TRO, and "holygrail" .. the "oldtimers" would post their daily ditties. Check the archives yourself. TRO has always been kind enuf to share what he knows and his filters. The earliest was the RSI(2), as opposed to the standard RSI(14). Like "holygrail", either M4M's typing is poor or the English is not so good. Either way .. Go back to the archives ... back to 2003 ... Everything you need to know is there, if you care to take the time to read it. May "the force" be with you! :>) LOL! |
| nikoschopen 2,824 posts msg #52677 - Ignore nikoschopen |
6/29/2007 2:10:33 PM I dunno Karen. I believe this market is in a transition phase, and when it does come out of that phase it can only go down. Mary might have the best options system in the world but I believe his foresight is too damn myopic. |
| alf44 2,025 posts msg #52678 - Ignore alf44 |
6/29/2007 2:25:59 PM "Mary" gives new meaning to the phrase... "if you can't dazzle'em with brilliance...baffle'em with bullshit" |
| nikoschopen 2,824 posts msg #52680 - Ignore nikoschopen |
6/29/2007 3:15:28 PM Aren't we in for a real treat?! It's too bad there's a weekend ahead of us that will dampen this slide. But then Monday is usually a follow-through day. Let's pray that the selloff will not rob too much of Mary's nest egg. |
| nikoschopen 2,824 posts msg #52681 - Ignore nikoschopen |
6/29/2007 4:01:51 PM Some crazy end-of-the-quarter window dressing in that final half-hour (or was that a short-cover rally)! |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #52683 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
6/29/2007 6:00:12 PM Mary4Money, StockHolyGrail and Lerogee777 are all the same person! |
| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · the best of Mary4Money...... | << 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up |
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