This is one friggin' boring market. As a bear, I would like to see the S&P break down and close below the trendline as mentioned above. Otherwise, there could be a bounce considering that there's a weekend just around the corner. One note of minor importance is that volume is, again, practically dead.
I know you are not an Elliot Wave guy, but SP has probably just completed a "counter trend" Wave (4). W4 is typically longer in time than Wave 2 that was completed Dec 11th... And this (countertrend) Wave was precisely 3x's longer in time than W2 that ended May 2nd...
The only other scenario could be an ABC sequence... In which the SP should turn on 1454 in the first two weeks of June....
After fuel rises more (setting up for summertime) I think the market will start puking with the rest of the world, and the next DOWN leg will begin... That will begin Wave C downward...BTW- WC is 100% of WA projected from B 1454 or so...
On the QID,drawing a trendline off the previous tops of w1-w2 11/12/07&12/18/07 extending down towards this month arrives at around 36 along with the w2 low also 36.The QID pattern from the top on 5/10 could be counted as an ABC with C having about 3 points left to go to hit 36.At 36 wave C would equal the distance travelled of wave A..
To me, this is just another technical bounce as I already mentioned on Friday. However, I doubt this rally will sustain more than 3 days. My prediction is that it will make a double-top formation and roll over,
Right now price is just below the EMA200 and the MA200 is not that far above. Today although an up day was on weak volume. VIX is very low right now. If it starts to rally from these levels look out below. UNTIL price rallies on stronger volume and starts finding support above these levels I would be very cautious on the long side.
Stocks Fall on Retail Report, Bernanke Speech, Oil - AP
Wall Street pulled back Tuesday after a report on retail sales and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave investors little incentive to extend the previous session's big advance. A jump in oil prices added to the selling.
However, it was only yesterday when they claimed that the market was rallying on the strength of dollar and falling oil prices. Why don't they ever write that the market is acting insane and its participants are a bunch of dumbass who will believe anything the self-serving pundits throw at them?
Same story, different idiots or different story, same idiots?
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