| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Where is Mr. Luck? | << 1 2 >>Post Follow-up |
| stefonk 33 posts msg #97905 - Ignore stefonk modified |
12/9/2010 3:07:59 PM I have never had a wining trade. Is luck not on my side? Anytime I ran my filters and my technicals show a very good sign of an uptrend, as soon as I take position on the stock, the price goes down. What is going on? Is it because my filters are not good. Please can anybody give me a win win filter, so that at least I can regain some of my money from commisions and other losses. thank you so much and maybe I will enjoy this christmas with my family. I need a very good filter please? |
| campbellb75 101 posts msg #97906 - Ignore campbellb75 |
12/9/2010 3:32:30 PM If you're as bad as you claim to be, short every stock that you plan to go long with. You'll have 100% winners. |
| stefonk 33 posts msg #97907 - Ignore stefonk |
12/9/2010 4:02:43 PM Thats no helpful. For example take symbol ALTID, close yesterdaywas a complete bullish engulfing which covered more than the previous 2 days. Thats all indication that buyers have taken over but then today what happened, the price kept going down. My position is whenever bullish engulfing occurs, then its good to go long not short. So how do you short if techs indicates to go long. |
| johnpaulca 12,036 posts msg #97909 - Ignore johnpaulca modified |
12/9/2010 4:23:08 PM This filter looks for beaten up stocks. Select the stocks with a good base like DF and THOR then wait for volume to increase and an open+close above wma(13)....hth. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #97910 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/9/2010 7:32:59 PM Of course - there are dozens of winning filters peppered throughout the forums. Here's one of mine: exit conditions are either ma(10) above MA(45) or rmi(8,14) crossed above 45 Results over the last 4 months: Approach Name: RMI(8,14) cross below 65 Test started on 08/09/2010 ended on 12/09/2010, covering 86 days Filter used: market is s&p 500 close above 1 average volume(20) above 200000 MA(10) below MA(45) rmi(8,14) crossed below 65 Trade Statistics There were 78 total stocks entered. Of those, 68 or 87.18% were complete and 10 or 12.82% were open. Of the 68 completed trades, 64 trades or 94.12% resulted in a net gain. Your average net change for completed trades was: 4.80%. The average draw down of your approach was: -4.21%. The average max profit of your approach was: 6.22% The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 45.07 Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 87.10%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 28.19%. Max number of trades was 25, no stops used. Equity gain starting with $100,000 on 8/3 until 12/3 was $15,197.00. This filter has not returned any trades so far in December - while it is uncannily accurate, it does not trade all that often. |
| duke56468 683 posts msg #97913 - Ignore duke56468 |
12/9/2010 10:10:34 PM Here is what I have been using lately, only buy if goes below pp next day, stop below candle. You still have to use your own judgement. Not sure who created this basic part, I think it was four, but if not I apologize. I thank all those that are so willing to share their filters. |
| mikes2010 16 posts msg #97918 - Ignore mikes2010 |
12/10/2010 12:35:12 AM Kevin, Can you please put a link to some of the winning filters, I have been searching but have not been able to find. Thanks |
| Walid 130 posts msg #97921 - Ignore Walid |
12/10/2010 12:52:09 AM I am sorry to hear about your recent trading experience. I see some of our friends here have already offered you what looks like a robust and reliable filters. However, I am concerned more with your strategy and tactics. From what you said, it looks like you are using the Japanese Candlestick patterns as trading triggers. If you have read Steve Nison work on the subject – he is the highest authority on Candlesticks and the one you should be learning from – you would know that Candlesticks are best combined with western traditional technical analysis to define a complete trading strategy. In fact, the pullback you mentioned with ALTID is very common with Engulfing pattern as well as the Hammer. Here is a quote from page 44 “A prime use of the engulfing pattern is utilizing them as support and resistance” Another quote from the same page “… by the time a bullish engulfing pattern is completed ….. the market may be well ff its lows. As such, I would feel that it has gotten away from an attractive buying area” From these quotes you can conclude that the pattern itself is by no means a trigger and whatever your entry point would be, you have to be very comfortable with the risk associated with it. For instance, some traders enter long once the market is trading above the close of the engulfing candle. At this scenario, your stop is below the low of the same candle; remember, the low of the candle is a support. The low of the engulfing candle in ALTID example was 1.72 and the close was 2.24. This is a (0.52 * lot size) to risk. Are you ok with that? Some less aggressive traders put the stock on watch list and wait for a pullback near 50% of the engulfing candle before they enter so they can be a little closer to the logical stop. The pullback may never come but nonetheless, this is the trading plan they are comfortable with. The most important point I want to make and the mistake we all keep doing until we learn the hard way is, patterns and filters help us compile a list of potential trade candidates, timing the trade for low risk entry is a whole different story. You can have a winning trade that goes sore because you entered prematurely and no longer can stand the heat. Once you get out, the market – of course – go into your planed direction but without you. Spend some time studying and never trade a strategy without back testing it. After that, try paper trading the strategy for a while before you risk you hard earned money on live trades. Finally, even though John and Kevin are advanced traders and I am sure they will not post a filter they don’t trust their own money with; trading these filters – or any filter for that matter - blindly can still lead to the same results you are suffering from right now. Spend some time developing a trading plan for these filters. Your stop must be the first and most important decision you make before you enter. Make sure you are absolutely ok – both financially and emotionally - in case this stop gets triggered. If not, reduce your lot or pass. Now, what is your entry trigger and on what time frame (for example 5, 15, 60 minutes chart). What if the stock gaps up? Are you going to wait for a pullback? Chase? Or pass? Answer all of these questions before you entered a trade, I think this will increase your odds of winning. Best of luck to you and sorry if my reply is too long. |
| mystiq 650 posts msg #97923 - Ignore mystiq modified |
12/10/2010 2:04:34 AM stefonk msg #97907 - Ignore stefonk 12/9/2010 4:02:43 PM Thats no helpful. For example take symbol ALTID, close yesterdaywas a complete bullish engulfing which covered more than the previous 2 days. Thats all indication that buyers have taken over but then today what happened, the price kept going down. My position is whenever bullish engulfing occurs, then its good to go long not short. So how do you short if techs indicates to go long. ----just be patient...wait for confirmation ..that is an outside day followed by an inside day on ALTID. watch for an early breakout whether to the long or short side. *the bullish engulfing only tells part of the story* BULLISH ENGULFING Recognition: The body of the second day completely engulfs the body of the first day. Shadows are not a consideration. Pattern Psychology: This pattern suggests the Bulls are stepping in with force, suggesting prices will move up. Related Articles: How to Trade the Bullish Engulfing Signal http://candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/16_441_/candlestick.asp |
| mahkoh 1,065 posts msg #97925 - Ignore mahkoh modified |
12/10/2010 4:31:21 AM ALTID is a penny stock with an average volume of about 100000. You don't have to be that big a fund to create a bullish pattern and lure retail investors in if you want to. Offsetting the date will let you look back on how often this pattern has had bullish implications. It does help if there are other indicators in play (fibonacci or pivot support, double bottom) If you find more then one candidate you can play them all and spread your risk. If your account will let you, take the other side as well. |
| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Where is Mr. Luck? | << 1 2 >>Post Follow-up |
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