BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83613
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/30/2009 12:08:44 PM
well, i just got (buy) stopped with CI and BKS near their lows using trailing stops .... so I covered CI at a profit and BKS at a substantially better price than Friday's close and todays high ... so my accounts are about +1,300 better than they were when the day started, only have CAH to worry about now but my open loss on it is only nominal anyways ...
Kevin, I feel like I should be buying with the vix where it is, but the stochastics appear to point to more downside in the markets. And, there is normally a sight downside bias to the beginning of the month .... so I'm not sure what to do ... maybe sit the sidelines.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83618
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/30/2009 12:49:24 PM
Uh oh ... I usually follow your advice, not the other way around!
I bought into commodities on Friday, all of which are up again today. Today is unusual in that both the markets and the USD are down right now. But since commodities have begun to decouple from the markets, and are trading inversely to the dollar, I'm OK right now.
This is possibly the beginning of a retracement, but something in me says that the US Government will not let the markets tank before XMas. Dubai will be forgotten in a week, and by Friday all we'll hear about is the weekly numbers again, which are under Gov influence (to be polite).
Also, VIX futures seem to be discounting the Dubai thing, so it should come back into line over the next few days.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83632
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/30/2009 7:26:43 PM
Kevin,
I picked up some HAL this afternoon - still short CAH. Kinda sitting neutral here - we'll see what happens.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83640
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/30/2009 8:54:56 PM
I'm holding pat on AGQ, UGL, MOO, DBA, and GDX - all went up today, and I think they will continue slowly up for a while. No hurry to cash out on these yet. I'm only up about 2% on the whole lot right now, but I think that they can go a few percentage points higher this week.
I have noticed that for most of the stocks and indices I watch, the stochastic(9,5,3) has gone flat and is criss-crossing fairly frequently. Not sure what that portends, but I'm using the ^VIX and $USD to make my calls right now.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83669
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/1/2009 10:51:50 AM
AGQ shot up today - I took my profits. In at 66.09, out at 71.00 (profit stop). In all likelihood it will go higher, but I made 7.4% profit in three days. I'm cool with that.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83677
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
12/1/2009 12:13:06 PM
I knew it - AGQ is up to 73.68 right now (would have been another 4% profit by waiting an hour or two).
EDIT: all around a good day. Stll holding everything else.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83685
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/1/2009 4:13:55 PM
BIG DROP IN THE ^VIX TODAY.
-10.44%
The VIX dropping 10% or more in a day has only happened 86 times since the beginning of 1999. On average the next day was DOWN -0.21%, and the average three days afterwards was DOWN -0.47%.
Likely red day for the ^SPX tomorrow, but I don't discount the ever-weakening dollar as a mitigating influence.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83688
- Ignore BarTune1
modified |
12/1/2009 5:05:06 PM
Kevin, I'm long and short here .... I made an error in posting the vix variance earlier here ... everything looks neutral to me ...
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83689
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/1/2009 5:23:31 PM
I'm all long right now, but I think the dollar will continue to support stocks and gold. At some point a dollar rally HAS to be orchestrated - I think it will be after Xmas, but it could come sooner as we hit multi-year lows on the DXY.
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trendscanner
265 posts
msg #83700
- Ignore trendscanner |
12/1/2009 7:59:29 PM
It seems like this market doesn't go down until "everyone" believes it won't and only when shorting it seems like a crazy thing to do. I almost got to that point today but the charts looks like more upside is do-able in the short term.
The upper trend line for Dow30 would project a potential near term top this week of around 10600. If it hits that level and pushes a little above it, there could be an addiitonal short covering rally that would push it a bit higher, at least intraday.
Same thing on the SPX - trendline would suggest a short term top of around 1120. I'm saving some powder in case that scenario develops.
JP, here's a link to a plot of the GS:$SPX over the last few years with SPX behind it. if you're correct about GS being a harbinger of a pullback, then there could be a significant pullback in the works soon - there's a major divergence between the GS:$SPX direction and the SPX right now. I noticed GS was down today while the market was rallying. GS really outperformed the SPX during the initial part of the 2009 rally but, relatively speaking, it's sucking wind right now.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS:$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18743835785&a=184753712&listNum=1
Also, the bullish percent charts indicate that fewer stocks have been participating in this latest rally, i.e, it's led by large caps and defensive stocks (Campbell Soup, Heinz, Coca Cola, big pharma, etc.). if the small caps suddenly get some major money flowing into them, there could be a significant short term rally. if that happens, we might see a bear-killing climax rally this year.
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