For anyone who was following, or follows, this signal, note that the VIX closed +13.5% higher than its 10 dma today suggesting that the market is very oversold. I use this signal to buy or sell the SPYs etc. as the case may be.
Anyone that followed the previous thread knows that Kevin brilliantly tweaked the system using (9,2) Bollenger Bands. Using an exit of a cross of the 5 dma (for purposes of a high probability short term reversion to the mean trade) this system produced 88% winners according to his backtesting.
It signalled twice in the past couple weeks and was profitable for me both times. The VIX closed above the band today, suggesting it might be prudent to by the SPY .... or SSO as I have, for purpose of a short term trade.
Here's the chart - should automatically update every day.
I went even crazier - TNA (3x bull on small caps). In for 50 shares (~$2000). This is obviously NOT my usual BB(16,2.5) strategy, but rather an opportunistic play for a day or two.
Kevin, I think you are in a good trade ..... and I hope like hell it's profitable ..... I'm in on the SSO and SSO call options .... with your other portfolio, I'd like to see you take the short position as a hedge against those holdings, when the variance is the other way ....
I am a little lop sided on the long side here, especially since there is often a little downside bias the first few days of the month, but this system has always been good to me .... and the variance is particularly large at this moment ....
Kevin, I'm feeling it worse than you today .... I prefer to average into positions .... but I think I added too much yesterday where i should be comfortably adding another unit today ....
I would average down your cost today on a drop and stick to the exit I have always used. If you lose on this trade you can rest assured I got my ass kicked 10x more .....
Breathe a little easier - I'm seeing some green on the indices (IXIC, NDX). Looks like the Dow and S&P are hovering around the unchanged mark right now, with no planned news to screw up the rest of the day.
Well Kevin, we made it through the day ..... I think we will get an upswing next week such that we will still get out at a profit ..... time now for a cocktail ....
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