| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Time frame for analyzing new filters | << >>Post Follow-up |
| jim_c_hill 61 posts msg #29285 - Ignore jim_c_hill |
10/11/2003 12:53:55 PM I have noticed recently a number of new filters posted in which good results are touted, but usually these are based on a relatively short time frames and sometimes over good market periods. If you are developing a new filter I suggest, as previously suggested many months ago, that you look at the performance from May 4, 2001 through the end of August, 2001, presently 610 days offset. You will find many filters fail during this time period. There are some filters that break even or even make money but few do well in the time frame. You need to be ready to trade this type of time frame or recognize it and do not trade it. Jim |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29288 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/11/2003 3:09:55 PM 610 days is an almost impossible time frame to deal with and not neccessary. Filters are tools and those that can't deal with bull markets, bear markets, non-trending markets are not going to make it anyway. I look at filters and trading systems as tools. You change them as the need changes. If you were to try to build a filter for all seasons I think you will end up at best with either a poor performer on average or some kind of kludge that still only addresses one small part of trading. Look, most folks are going to get taken to the cleaners anyway, so there is not much use trying to create what probably cannot be created. One size fits all. On Koliga.Com I run quite a few filters and trading systems none of which claim to be the tool for all seasons, although I know for a fact that two do just that because they are very short term and don't get hits when the market is not right. You are never going to be able to construct a filter that tells you to trade by shorting for this period and to go long for that. You have to constantly paper trade and to be in the market to know that. I have noted that traders that complain of staggering losses also bragg about never paper trading. Yup - the two go hand in glove. Most folks are fodder for the few that know how to read a chart and when to get in and when to get out. Filters can't do that for you, no matter how well they are written. I no longer discuss much on this forum because its full of petty little egos that claim to have something to say even when they have shown they can't recognize a falling chart from a rising one. I invite folks who want to discuss trading tactics and chart reading to visit Koliga.com and for those that can only run a filter and hope to not visit Koliga because they have no hope anyway. Folks that proudly proclaim they don't paper trade are losers and have admitted that fact right on this forum, so there is not much use going into that. A filter's job is to find prospects and that is all. It won't give you the best entry point nor will it give you the exit point. From that point of view, most folks are pretty much doomed. I like to discuss technicals, indicators and chart reading but won't do it here anymore because of the personal attacks that are all too common. After you run the filter comes deciding on the entry, how much to risk on one stock, when to get out. Good luck writting a filter for all that. http://www.koliga.com/forum/index.php?c=5 Koliga.Com has it all: Filters, trading systems and TA discussions. If you have a tender little ego that can't stand a differing view, don't stop by. If you just want to run a filter with no other consideration, don't stop by. You can save your time and lose your money quicker by just depending on that magic filter. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #29289 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/11/2003 3:49:43 PM "A filter's job is to find prospects and that is all. It won't give you the best entry point nor will it give you the exit point." Very well put. |
| jim_c_hill 61 posts msg #29290 - Ignore jim_c_hill |
10/11/2003 5:39:19 PM Joe I did not suggest looking at 610 days of trading. I am suggesting one consider looking at the May-August 2001 time period, about 610 days ago for offset, and seeing what a filter does. Many produce very poor win % and loss%. As the market is now in at least a bull type phase, most filters return postive results. One has to be aware of market conditions and consider whether to play or not. Your work on Koliga if very useful. As you know I contributed to the Killer system but when I worked on it I developed my aspects looking at good and bad markets. I would never trade a system without some understanding of how it does in down markets. JH |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #29291 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/11/2003 6:33:02 PM JIM: A filter is just a tool used to select stocks. You have to then trade them. IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE BUT HOW YOU TRADE IT. Same stock, same day, one trader loses, the other wins. It ain't the stock. And it ain't the bull/bear market either. The cold cruel fact is either you know how/when to enter/exit a trade or you don't. People spend too much time tweaking filters instead of studying money management and trading techniques. MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29292 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/11/2003 6:56:50 PM I see Joe is still taking those cheap shots and calling names. Reminds me of high school. I once went to Joe's site to see what it was all about. You know what I found? About 15 pictures of Joe on every page I went to. No kidding. That was the most outstanding feature and the primary focus of what the site was about. I never went back. Now he has the audacity to complain about 'petty little egos' on this board. Well there ain't nothin little about yours Joe. You complain,"I like to discuss technicals, indicators and chart reading but won't do it here anymore because of the personal attacks that are all too common." YOU are the one who initiated the personal attacks Joe. With your post,'JoeGrossinger 10/8/2003 7:02:19 PM'. Its right there in black and white. Now you try to turn that around and lay the blame on me. You couldn't take the fact that I disagreed with you and so you went for the throat in an attempt to shut me up and you are still trying to carry out that agenda now through a smear campaign you are waging in third party conversations. You would make a great politician. But I see through you Joe and your manipulative ways. If you got something to say about me why don't you say it to my face? You seem to need to make everyone think that you are an authority figure, that you are right, that you are superior. I contend that then trend was changing. The stock bounced up off of support with good volume. If you don't agree I really don't care. You think you are so superior my challenge still stands. Prove it to us Joe. You certainly like to assert you are more knowlegable but never substantiate it with substance. Just after the fact wisdom. Even my son of 13 years of age could do that with the knowlege he has of charting. Truth is that no one will ever know where that position was going without the news announcement. You can assert all you want but in the end it means nothing. Everyone can have their own opinion about whether that position was going to move higher or not but it makes no difference because they are nothing more than opinions. I contend that buyers had already displayed their support for the stock at the trendline and that the trend was changing. Volume was above ADV on +2% gains over the open and volume surged +288% above the previous days selling volume. You contend that the trend was not going to change. You can't prove your position and neither can I. All either of us can do is support the argument with evidence. You are not content with that though. You insist on perpetuating the name calling and posturing while claiming it is someone else doing it. Seems you will settle for nothing less than coming away from this feeling like an indisputable authority figure. I could care less myself. The only thing I care about is what the market thinks about my choices because thats all that matters. I'm sure you will try to spin this with more after the fact wisdom. But who cares. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29293 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/11/2003 7:15:42 PM jim_c_hill I think your curiousity about the validity of a given filter in bear market is justified. Valuable information can be collected from investigating past performance of filters in varying market conditions. You will be a step ahead of the game for having done that and no damage is caused from studying it. Rather judging from the conclusions you have drawn from the study you have already realized that prevailing long term trends need to be respected. |
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