| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Stocks At The Mercy Of The ,Market This Is All Voodoo | << 1 2 >>Post Follow-up |
| mesayah 658 posts msg #85855 - Ignore mesayah |
1/9/2010 5:20:06 AM TA on stocks doesn't work in times extreme or varying market moves. I've tested 10 systems in up & down trends and all failed. Maybe DMI comes closest. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #85857 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/9/2010 7:59:17 AM Given the essentially unrelenting upward movement the markets have had since March, I am disappointed in my own trading that it has not matched the overall gains in the SPY. Many here probably would have done better just plunking cash into the SPY or GLD and going fishing. Objectively, if you get 1% gain a week, you are ahead of 99% of investors. The problem is that most people are looking to make "a killing" on stocks, and usually the opposite happens. I am adopting a more Zen-like approach to trading for 2010. I am tracking only a handful of ETFs, and using a set of price and volume filters to move in or out of them as needed. Also looking at overall market direction as a key signal - NYSE volumes, A/D ratios, and SPX VIX signals. |
| fortyfour 189 posts msg #85861 - Ignore fortyfour modified |
1/9/2010 8:28:09 AM I also would have liked better results in 2009 (who wouldnt) Got me thinking of monkeys and darts..... My 1st attempt at system design this morning had me pick 4 random letter SDAM and arrange them into all possible combos and pug into a watchlist. Buy on CLOSE REACHED A NEW 10 DAY HIGH sell after 7 days no stops. Start time april 1st 2009 to now. About 150 trades with anualized return of 50%. A reminder for me to step away from the keyboard and go live life. "Its a bull market Ya know....." 'Old man Partridge from Livermore's Reminiscenses.' And ya... I know you freaks and nerds ...... they are nice letters.... ************************************** More like 1 in 10,000 Kevin........just my unproven opinion. (consistently , that is, year after year........) |
| gmg733 788 posts msg #85863 - Ignore gmg733 |
1/9/2010 10:02:05 AM Kevin, If you are going to ETF route, this guy has done something similar and I enjoy reading his analysis and he focuses on ETFs. http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ One the long term reitrement account front, I have been toying with keeping it in house and basic. Following this chart: http://dshort.com/charts/SP500-market-timing.html?SP500-monthly-12MA-since-1995 .. I simply put money into the (SSO, SDS) and (QLD, QID) market indices. I was thinking one night how I could easily and simply beat the market with minimal effort and here it is. Outperform the SPX and NASQ by 2x. And the chart above you get you in an out at the right times. This is boring, but I enjoy trading and do that with some fixed capital and create wealth. So the reitrement account, I want more of a set it and forget it approach. And this approach makes you money up and down markets. I'd like some contrarian feedback on this. Again, this would be for some of my retirement accounts. I have some 401ks to roll over and I am considering doing it myself. I'm tired of being sold a basket of goods when someone should be looking out for my money. Ideas? Thanks. Greg |
| drew9 171 posts msg #85870 - Ignore drew9 |
1/9/2010 12:47:08 PM Greg, not sure who you use for a broker but thought I might let you and others in on a fantastic offering from Interactive Brokers. I have tried to trade my main account, IRA, 401K, wifes's IRA and 401K as well as my parents two IRA accounts for a few years. It has been a tedious experience to say the least. Logging into each account (4 different institutions I might add) and then figuring out how much, and what to trade was very time consuming (and not very productive). I have had my main trading account with Interactive Brokers now for a few years. They have recently come out with what they call an "Advisor Account." This allows you to set up a master account and trade up to 15 sub accounts. This type of account is for non-professionals. So what is the big deal? Well this structure allows you to do one execution and it will automatically allocate shares to all the accounts you choose based on percentages, equity, margin, etc. I have just about got all my accounts now transferred into the sub accounts and cannot wait for this to be completed. So instead of logging into seven accounts and then having to follow up on each trade, I now can log into one account, place one trade and the shares are allocated to all my accounts based on my strategy. I am beyond excited about this as like you I decided I needed to have better control and take things into my own hands. |
| duke56468 683 posts msg #85872 - Ignore duke56468 |
1/9/2010 1:00:28 PM gmg733 I also follow the dshort 12MA price cross as a long term indicator. Doesn't get you in at the bottom or out at the top, but much better than what I was doing (hope and prayer). |
| gmg733 788 posts msg #85874 - Ignore gmg733 |
1/9/2010 1:18:14 PM Drew, That is awesome. I was thinking about this the other day and have considered using IB for equity plays. Nice commissions there. And what a great feature. I made a deal with the Ed Jones guy my wife uses that if I outperform him in 2010, then I'm taking all out money out. Duke, I might have gotten this chart from you. I was thinking one day how to outperform the broad market with minimal effort and this is when this popped into my head and the use of using the SSO/SDS type pairs. Why not profit up and down? Like you say, you won't get tops and bottoms, but that isn't part of the trade critieria. I simply want to perserve capital and grow. No fees besides commissions to muck with. Clean simple easy. I'd still like some contrarian views to this. Someone talk me out of it. No I won't be up 100% in a year, but I will outperform the market indices 2x and with the use of the 'easy' chart be sure to protect myself. I have thought about using options as leverage, but the concept of theta starts to hinder the thesis a bit. I need to think about this some more and research LEAPS a bit more. This might lead to a super-charged long term portfolio. gmg733 |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #85877 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/9/2010 3:41:07 PM Just a caution here - the strategy works best when you enter at the crossover, which was 7 months ago. You are assuming that you will outperform the market between now and the next crossover, which may not be the case. If you get on the wrong side of the 2x trade for too long, you'll have next to nothing left. Trust me on this - it happened to me this year, when I got into the 2x short ETFs in late February. Nuff said. This is a fine strategy to take on the NEXT crossover. |
| mesayah 658 posts msg #85880 - Ignore mesayah modified |
1/9/2010 5:54:05 PM Hey Kevin. Just curious. Do you know of any long system that would have performed remotely well let's say in the down trend from 05-19-08 till March? Or has anyone studied the characteristics of long stocks on down market days or trends? Doubting you would find anything but just asking. Oscillators are nice and the rest of TA is neat but what do you do when your indicators are hugging the turnaround points for days or weeks and it keeps jumping from positive to negative and you're caught in a blender churning. I guess what i'm saying is yes i've caught some big fish the day before they popped like CCRT up 80% or ACAD but when testing those systems in down trending markets they fall flat on their faces. If only there was a way to learn the ins and outs of ETFs or SPY or if you could devise a system that snubs the market, it would be golden. I often thought volume might hold the key but idk. |
| drew9 171 posts msg #85882 - Ignore drew9 |
1/9/2010 8:12:58 PM mesayah, there is literally no long trading system that would have performed well during that period! The key in my opinion is to use a MA like Greg and trade the right side of the market. I use 50 day MA for stocks and 100 day MA for ETF's. Use your normal strategy. If they are above it then go long, if not stay away or go short. |
| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Stocks At The Mercy Of The ,Market This Is All Voodoo | << 1 2 >>Post Follow-up |
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