jd_hunter03
13 posts
msg #28609
- Ignore jd_hunter03 |
9/16/2003 3:09:22 PM
Does anyone have an opinion on the direction of the stock market short-term and long-term? Do you have any indicators that work well? I was using VIX but waiting for the market to correct because VIX is near 20 is like watching paint dry. I'm just curious because good filters are great when the market is going up but I haven't found one that works in all conditions - Yet!
Hunter
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #28627
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
9/17/2003 7:54:53 AM
Use RSI(2) and 100% Linear Regression Channel on a 3 mon/daily AND 1 year/weekly chart on www.prophet.net.
Those will tell you the tops and bottoms.
Use 13 ema and 26 ema to determine uptrend/downtrend reversals.
Works like a charm, everytime.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28649
- Ignore EWZuber |
9/18/2003 3:06:54 AM
I use several different chart periodicities and have found that it is quite reliable but it takes some skill to interperate.
I watch for quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily charts overbought & oversold values and phase relationships.
I watch for resistance levels and support levels, trendlines and patterns on all charts.
Right now the markets are long term overbought and I believe we are in for a correction but so far there has been no short term violations of any support levels that will indicate a correction has begun.
Looking at the long term picture I suspect, at this time, that the NASDAQ will eventually rise to about 2,100 ~ 2,300. Here it will find resistance from previous cycle highs @ 2,098 and 2,328 and also the 50 Month Moving Average now also @ 2,328 ( & falling slightly ).
Quarterly chart Stochastics are rising and as long as we have this condition along with improving earnings the market will continue to be in an uptrend.
The first indications of a major consolidation will appear on daily charts.
I suspect that most do not realize this but the DJI is technically still in a Bear Market.
This index is currently testing a 2+ year trendline as resistance/support. This will be critical. The DJI has been approaching this trendline in a very overbought condition. Candlesticks are beginning to overlap from month to month indicating a slight slowing of accumulation. Also volume has been in a general decline for several months as the index has been rising. These are signs that the market is tiring.
This trendline was actually broken 5 days ago and is being tested as support right now at 9,465. Daily and Weekly chart stochastics have crossed into distribution phase. Monthly chart stochastics are overbought @ 91 but have not started distribution yet.
A real eye opener about the divergence of these markets is revealed by looking at a 10 year chart using yearly periodicity with slow stochastics indicator.
Notice that the NASDAQ is very oversold at a value of 13 whiloe the DJI has fallen to only 48.
I suspect this is the reason for the dramatic rebound in the NASDAQ as it is much more long term oversold.
NASDAQ started a new Monthly chart accumulation phase at almost exactly the same time that it broke long term trendline resistance and signaled a new uptrend.
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murknd
62 posts
msg #28658
- Ignore murknd |
9/18/2003 9:51:16 AM
EWZuber - Excellent commentary and analysis - I really enjoy your posts. D
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28664
- Ignore EWZuber |
9/18/2003 5:05:44 PM
Thanks murknd.
Just a note, part of my DJI chart was cut off yesterday because of an anomaly with Bigcharts. Anyhow, DJI is in an accumulation phase on daily charts ( not distribution ) and bounced up off of the 25 DMA this morning. It closed 1 point above resistance at the previous cycle high at 9,661 with a bullish DMI+(2) indicator. Looks like a higher open tomorrow morning or a move up after the open for DJI. JMHO
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