| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · STOCK SELECTION ( FILTERING ) VS. STOCK TRADING. | << 1 2 3 4 5 >>Post Follow-up |
| nikoschopen 2,824 posts msg #57796 - Ignore nikoschopen |
12/8/2007 10:26:42 PM I would think that the OPEN is the least arbitrary of all points in time simply because it IS the open. Hmm, I must confess that's really new to me. If you were advocating for the previous day's close instead of the open I would have readily agreed with you because I know that reversals do occur frequently at those points. I would further agree with you if the open aligns with some major support or resistance, or any other significant trendline for that matter. But to blindly enter a trade on open just because it happens to be the open (plus 10-cents) seems far-fetched IMHO. There's no factual basis to support your otherwise "statistical" claim. I would enter long at open + .10 but I would be quick to take my profit... So you bail out with +0.10 profit. But then what? Do you now close shop and quit trading? Since your entry rule clearly bars you from entering another trade unless the stock re-cross above the open, you can only trade stocks that are rangebound in my opinion. Am I not correct? DOES STOCKFETCHER USE REALTIME DATA? IF NOT, HOW AM I TO KNOW THAT THE STOCK WILL GO UP ONCE IT CROSSES ABOVE THE OPEN AND DOWN ONCE IT CROSSES BELOW THE OPEN? HOW DO I KNOW THAT IT WILL NOT JUST ZIG-ZAG AROUND THE OPEN? ABOVE ALL, WOULD YOU HAVE CLOSED OUT URE POSITION AT THE HIGH OF THE DAY AS CLEARLY ILLUSTRATED BY URE STATISTICALLY DRIVEN FILTERS? HOW WOULD YOU KNOW IN ADVANCE THAT THAT WAS THE HIGH OF THE DAY? THERE'S NO WAY FOR YOU TO KNOW THIS UNLESS YOU HOLD URE POSITION UNTIL THE CLOSE. (Note that I'm not shouting nor am I merely "derailing" ure otherwise prolific contribution to this forum for vain reasons. My respect for you still stands but somehow I feel that my point wasn't getting across to you very well. Remember, two differing opinions are necessary for a healthy debate. Ciao!) |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #57798 - Ignore TheRumpledOne modified |
12/8/2007 10:43:05 PM Niko: You are still not understanding... the more you know, the harder it is to grasp this concept... kind of like in ZEN, you must empty the cup first, in order to receive more knowledge... but I digress. Niko, I enter at OPEN PRICE + $.10 not at the OPEN PRICE because the statistics show that if the price reaches OPEN + $.10, it will reach OPEN + $.50 more times than not. IT IS THAT SIMPLE. I don't always get OPEN + $.50 but I can get enough to be profitable. Sometimes I get a little, sometimes I get a lot. All one has to do is look at a 1 minuter or 5 minute chart and either you SEE IT or you don't. 
See that WHITE LINE (open)? See how many times the price cut across the OPEN on Friday. Did the price cross it by at least $.10? Did the price cross it by at least $.50? Niko, do you SEE IT? AAPL, gapped up, so my bias for the first trade would be SHORT. After that gapped filled, then I simply trade the BUY ZONE. Niko, do you SEE IT, now? You are right, Niko, you don't know what the HIGH or LOW are until the market closes BUT YOU DO KNOW THE OPEN PRICE and STATISTICALLY you know the high is usually higher than the open and the low is usually lower than the open AND THAT IS ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW TO MAKE MONEY. Niko, do you SEE IT, now? This is NOT a debate. There is NOTHING to debate. This is something that has been proven. Niko, do you SEE IT, now? Niko, do you SEE IT, now? |
| dbyrt 70 posts msg #57800 - Ignore dbyrt |
12/8/2007 11:04:05 PM ``HOW AM I TO KNOW THAT THE STOCK WILL GO UP ONCE IT CROSSES ABOVE THE OPEN AND DOWN ONCE IT CROSSES BELOW THE OPEN? HOW DO I KNOW THAT IT WILL NOT JUST ZIG-ZAG AROUND THE OPEN? `` Well of course, nobody ``knows`` what will happen to a stock just after we buy it, or indeed, any time during the day, all we can do is ``hope`` that what we want to happen will happen. But of course, we base that hope on some hypothesis, whether its that a reversal is about to happen, or that a current direction is going to continue. There is nothing else we can hope for. So, we then gather our evidence to support that hypothesis. It seems to me, that a statistical approach is a reasonable one for `predicting` what is going to happen next. I haven`t seen a statistical approach other than the TRO hi-op count one. For example, how many times, when RSI(2) hits say 3, does the stock go up the next day? Or, when we see a doji, how many times does such and such happen, or when a bollenger band is crossed, what % of the time does such-and-such happen next? If we started seeing that kind of quantative analysis, we might have a surer bases for evaluating any filter or trading approach. |
| luc1grunt 622 posts msg #57801 - Ignore luc1grunt |
12/8/2007 11:10:57 PM I "see it" and fully understand the statistics that drive it. I trade AAPL everyday. I fully understand position sizing and I scale into winners as my risk/reward thresholds are met so I really don't need a vague trading lecture. I am looking at the cross into the "buy zone" above the open. At 3000 shares or better, the next couple of swings back below the zone would cause some damage. You don't get a full confirmation until you are almost ready for the downturn. Now, I don't expect a response of "it's not what you trade...etc", because I trade it (AAPL) profitably and consistently. But I still see enough crosses below the zone to stop out or risk a bigger drop. The statistics say where it may end up or how many times it with hit 1%, but when and where that happens are a little cloudy. Avery, your work is appreciated, but this question is asked so many times on this forum and others and the answer is "do you see it"? I see it and understand it, but don't know if I could stomach an $1800 unrealized loss every few minutes to grab a $300 profit. Even with less position size and scaling in I don't get it. Maybe that is why you are getting the questions....because there are those who "see it", but still have questions. I wouldn't even post this, but 70% of this forum is you pounding this topic and then responding to questions with vague answers. Elusive if you will. If your ego allows a more detailed response, do so.....I don't need to read another condescending response when I have a system that works for me already. Thanks for your time. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #57802 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/8/2007 11:11:03 PM dbyrt: As you have noticed, I do the stats for stocks based on price. One could do that indicators, in fact, I wrote a TRO STAT SCAN FOR SQUIGGLYS. All you have to is make a few modifications for the SQUIGGLY you want to use. But the FUNNY THING IS, when do you enter the trade? The next day at the open? If that's the case, that we're back to my open based stat scans...LOL!! |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #57804 - Ignore TheRumpledOne modified |
12/8/2007 11:15:00 PM "I see it and understand it, but don't know if I could stomach an $1800 unrealized loss every few minutes to grab a $300 profit. Even with less position size and scaling in I don't get it. " "The statistics say where it may end up or how many times it with hit 1%, but when and where that happens are a little cloudy. " ============ luc1grunt: How do you get an $1,800 loss? 3,000 shares would mean you let the price drop $.60 against you? You say you SEE IT but if that were the case, then you would have stopped and reversed the position at either the open or at open - $.10. For a $.10 or $.20 loss or $300 - $600 loss. When and where it happens? I am not sure what you mean by that question. I don't know when it will happen just that it most likely will happen. I know the conditions that can make it happen... price moving through the buy zone. Price has to move through the buy zone to make it happen. But since you have a method that works, luc1grunt, by all means STICK WITH IT and don't bother with any other method. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #57805 - Ignore TheRumpledOne modified |
12/8/2007 11:30:39 PM "Words are mirrors when you see yourself" - TRO ================================================== If you've wandered here wanting to know what Zen is, then more than likely you will come away disappointed. This is a question that is easily asked but not easily answered. A Hindu story tells of a fish who asked of another fish: "I have always heard about the sea, but what is it? Where is it?" The other fish replied: "You live, move and have your being in the sea. The sea is within you and without you, and you are made of sea, and you will end in sea. The sea surrounds you as your own being." The only true answer is the one that you find for youself. ==================================================== Nan-in, a Japanese master during the Meiji era (1868-1912), received a university professor who came to inquire about Zen. Nan-in served tea. He poured his visitor's cup full, and then kept on pouring. The professor watched the overflow until he no longer could restrain himself. "It is overfull. No more will go in!" "Like this cup," Nan-in said, "you are full of your own opinions and speculations. How can I show you Zen unless you first empty your cup?" =================================================== The son of a master thief asked his father to teach him the secrets of the trade. The old thief agreed and that night took his son to burglarize a large house. While the family was asleep, he silently led his young apprentice into a room that contained a clothes closet. The father told his son to go into the closet to pick out some clothes. When he did, his father quickly shut the door and locked him in. Then he went back outside, knocked loudly on the front door, thereby waking the family, and quickly slipped away before anyone saw him. Hours later, his son returned home, bedraggled and exhausted. "Father," he cried angrily, "Why did you lock me in that closet? If I hadn't been made desperate by my fear of getting caught, I never would have escaped. It took all my ingenuity to get out!" The old thief smiled. "Son, you have had your first lesson in the art of burglary." ====================================================== The Most Important Teaching A renowned Zen master said that his greatest teaching was this: Buddha is your own mind. So impressed by how profound this idea was, one monk decided to leave the monastery and retreat to the wilderness to meditate on this insight. There he spent 20 years as a hermit probing the great teaching. One day he met another monk who was traveling through the forest. Quickly the hermit monk learned that the traveler also had studied under the same Zen master. "Please, tell me what you know of the master's greatest teaching." The traveler's eyes lit up, "Ah, the master has been very clear about this. He says that his greatest teaching is this: Buddha is NOT your own mind." =================================================== Two men were arguing about a flag flapping in the wind. "It's the wind that is really moving," stated the first one. "No, it is the flag that is moving," contended the second. A Zen master, who happened to be walking by, overheard the debate and interrupted them. "Neither the flag nor the wind is moving," he said, "It is MIND that moves." =================================================== There is a Taoist story of an old farmer who had worked his crops for many years. One day his horse ran away. Upon hearing the news, his neighbors came to visit. "Such bad luck," they said sympathetically. "May be," the farmer replied. The next morning the horse returned, bringing with it three other wild horses. "How wonderful," the neighbors exclaimed. "May be," replied the old man. The following day, his son tried to ride one of the untamed horses, was thrown, and broke his leg. The neighbors again came to offer their sympathy on his misfortune. "May be," answered the farmer. The day after, military officials came to the village to draft young men into the army. Seeing that the son's leg was broken, they passed him by. The neighbors congratulated the farmer on how well things had turned out. "May be," said the farmer. ==================================================== Upon meeting a Zen master at a social event, a psychiatrist decided to ask him a question that had been on his mind. "Exactly how do you help people?" he inquired. "I get them where they can't ask any more questions," the Master answered. =================================================== A dramatic ballad singer studied under a strict teacher who insisted that he rehearse day after day, month after month the same passage from the same song, without being permitted to go any further. Finally, overwhelmed by frustration and despair, the young man ran off to find another profession. One night, stopping at an inn, he stumbled upon a recitation contest. Having nothing to lose, he entered the competition and, of course, sang the one passage that he knew so well. When he had finished, the sponsor of the contest highly praised his performance. Despite the student's embarrassed objections, the sponsor refused to believe that he had just heard a beginner perform. "Tell me," the sponsor said, "who is your instructor? He must be a great master." The student later became known as the great performer Koshiji. ====================================================== A Japanese warrior was captured by his enemies and thrown into prison. That night he was unable to sleep because he feared that the next day he would be interrogated, tortured, and executed. Then the words of his Zen master came to him, "Tomorrow is not real. It is an illusion. The only reality is now." Heeding these words, the warrior became peaceful and fell asleep. ====================================================== A martial arts student went to his teacher and said earnestly, "I am devoted to studying your martial system. How long will it take me to master it." The teacher's reply was casual, "Ten years." Impatiently, the student answered, "But I want to master it faster than that. I will work very hard. I will practice everyday, ten or more hours a day if I have to. How long will it take then?" The teacher thought for a moment, "20 years." ====================================================== A master of the tea ceremony in old Japan once accidentally slighted a soldier. He quickly apologized, but the rather impetuous soldier demanded that the matter be settled in a sword duel. The tea master, who had no experience with swords, asked the advice of a fellow Zen master who did possess such skill. As he was served by his friend, the Zen swordsman could not help but notice how the tea master performed his art with perfect concentration and tranquility. "Tomorrow," the Zen swordsman said, "when you duel the soldier, hold your weapon above your head, as if ready to strike, and face him with the same concentration and tranquility with which you perform the tea ceremony." The next day, at the appointed time and place for the duel, the tea master followed this advice. The soldier, readying himself to strike, stared for a long time into the fully attentive but calm face of the tea master. Finally, the soldier lowered his sword, apologized for his arrogance, and left without a blow being struck. ===================================================== A hermit was meditating by a river when a young man interrupted him. "Master, I wish to become your disciple," said the man. "Why?" replied the hermit. The young man thought for a moment. "Because I want to find God." The master jumped up, grabbed him by the scruff of his neck, dragged him into the river, and plunged his head under water. After holding him there for a minute, with him kicking and struggling to free himself, the master finally pulled him up out of the river. The young man coughed up water and gasped to get his breath. When he eventually quieted down, the master spoke. "Tell me, what did you want most of all when you were under water." "Air!" answered the man. "Very well," said the master. "Go home and come back to me when you want God as much as you just wanted air." ======================================================== Two people are lost in the desert. They are dying from hunger and thirst. Finally, they come to a high wall. On the other side they can hear the sound of a waterfall and birds singing. Above, they can see the branches of a lush tree extending over the top of the wall. Its fruit look delicious. One of them manages to climb over the wall and disappears down the other side. The other, instead, returns to the desert to help other lost travelers find their way to the oasis. ======================================================= A master calligrapher was writing some characters onto a piece of paper. One of his especially perceptive students was watching him. When the calligrapher was finished, he asked for the student's opinion - who immediately told him that it wasn't any good. The master tried again, but the student criticized the work again. Over and over, the calligrapher carefully redrew the same characters, and each time the student rejected it. Finally, when the student had turned his attention away to something else and wasn't watching, the master seized the opportunity to quickly dash off the characters. "There! How's that?," he asked the student. The student turned to look. "THAT.... is a masterpiece!" he exclaimed. ===================================================== A Taoist story tells of an old man who accidentally fell into the river rapids leading to a high and dangerous waterfall. Onlookers feared for his life. Miraculously, he came out alive and unharmed downstream at the bottom of the falls. People asked him how he managed to survive. "I accommodated myself to the water, not the water to me. Without thinking, I allowed myself to be shaped by it. Plunging into the swirl, I came out with the swirl. This is how I survived." ====================================================== A martial arts student approached his teacher with a question. "I'd like to improve my knowledge of the martial arts. In addition to learning from you, I'd like to study with another teacher in order to learn another style. What do you think of this idea?" "The hunter who chases two rabbits," answered the master, "catches neither one." ====================================================== The Prime Minister of the Tang Dynasty was a national hero for his success as both a statesman and military leader. But despite his fame, power, and wealth, he considered himself a humble and devout Buddhist. Often he visited his favorite Zen master to study under him, and they seemed to get along very well. The fact that he was prime minister apparently had no effect on their relationship, which seemed to be simply one of a revered master and respectful student. One day, during his usual visit, the Prime Minister asked the master, "Your Reverence, what is egotism according to Buddhism?" The master's face turned red, and in a very condescending and insulting tone of voice, he shot back, "What kind of stupid question is that!?" This unexpected response so shocked the Prime Minister that he became sullen and angry. The Zen master then smiled and said, "THIS, Your Excellency, is egotism." ======================================================== |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #57806 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/9/2007 12:01:34 AM Edward de Bono's Message for Today - 9th December 2007 If you cannot imagine any alternative explanations then it is easy to be convinced that the only one you have is absolutely right. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #57807 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/9/2007 12:39:28 AM "The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person doing it." ~ Chinese Proverb |
| nikoschopen 2,824 posts msg #57812 - Ignore nikoschopen |
12/9/2007 4:31:34 AM
Sounds pretty damn contradictory if you ask me! |
| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · STOCK SELECTION ( FILTERING ) VS. STOCK TRADING. | << 1 2 3 4 5 >>Post Follow-up |