Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #72862
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
3/17/2009 3:43:08 PM
I have been looking at longer term charts A LOT lately ... lots of indicators that the market will continue downward for a while longer.
Examples
- all three major indices have their weekly, monthly, and yearly 5 period EMA below the 10 period EMA. On the yearly data, it is based only on 2009 to date, so this may change if we have a real recovery.
- the Coppock curve for each index is as low as it has ever been, short of the Great Depression, and shows no signs of turning upward (a very reliable indicator that the bear market has died out). If the Dow goes to 8500 over the next three months, that will be enough to shift the momentum upward - it could happen, but thats another 1200 from where we are and no one can be selling into rallies if this is to be achieved.
- the MACD timing I use is negative for all indicies at the monthly and yearly timeframe. The recent rally has pushed the weekly number positive, but I can't see it as sustained just yet - there have been 4 other 600-1400 point rallies since November 2008, and look where we currently are relative to then.
If I were forced to guess, I would say that a month from now, once 1Q earnings start rolling in, we will slip back below 7000 on the Dow and below 700 on the S&P. My current positions are all shorts (QID, SDS, SMN), so this past week has been frustrating. However, the monthly data is pretty compelling right now, and 'm not a short term trader like many here. My style is to trade with the major current, and (try to) sleep well at night.
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FuriousThug
256 posts
msg #73098
- Ignore FuriousThug |
3/27/2009 12:28:38 AM
The major indexes have all taken and held their 50dmas this week. You could view that as a good sign the market is strengthening...
But you could also view the space between the 50 and (maybe) 200 as ideal spots to enter short with your SDSs and DXDs. One thing's for sure, it'll have a bitch of a time breaking through late Dec/early Jan as you'll likely have Fib retracement, 1-year trendline, and 200dma all converging at once. Add to that the fact that you can only spin "bad news" as "not-really-that-bad-news" for so long before the next blindside comes...and it will.
Or it won't...what do I know.
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chetron
2,817 posts
msg #73101
- Ignore chetron |
3/27/2009 6:31:48 AM
TECHNICALLY,. IF YOU SEE IT COMING, IT CAN'T BE A BLINDSIDE.
SO MAYBE IF WE ALL SAY IT IS TANKING, BUT GO LONG, WE CREATE THE RECOVERY, AND BE VERY RICH.
JMTC = )
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FuriousThug
256 posts
msg #73103
- Ignore FuriousThug |
3/27/2009 8:59:49 AM
Yeah, man. Let's DO IT!!!
Love,
Thelma
(er, Louise)
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