maxreturn
745 posts
msg #58917
- Ignore maxreturn |
1/11/2008 4:38:59 PM
Niko, agreed. I run filters every day which also give me a pulse on the market. When the market tanked shortly after Christmas I got tons of short setups on high volume. Yesterday and today, not very much. I still think we could see a bit of a rally or at least a consolidation near current support levels.
|
nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #58919
- Ignore nikoschopen |
1/11/2008 6:30:30 PM
With the big bad boys like Citi and Merrill showing at the front door next week with a larger-than-life subprime loss and the economic numbers like CPI and PPI that I think will crunch out as-yet-revised monster number, I ain't too sure what the Fed will do. One is recessionary, the other is inflationary. All I know is that it's gonna be one helluva roller-coaster week with a plenty of gut-wrenching opportunities.
If you play the options, go for the straddle or a credit spread to limit your downside risk. Otherwise, stay on the sideline if you can't handle large volatility.
|
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58926
- Ignore EWZuber |
1/12/2008 4:59:33 AM
nikoschopen, here's my take on things.
1) We just tested the 25 MO.MA as support. This is a very significant long term support area. It is bound to attract some investment capitol.
2) The Weekly Chart is in a distribution phase. This will mitigate any oversold bounce from the Daily Chart since the Weekly Chart is dominant.
Consequently I'm expecting a bit of consolidation around here. If that consolidation breaks to the downside ( expected) then the 25 MO.MA will likely be violated as support and down it goes.
There is a very small chance that we have tested the bottom of this pattern. A small chance that the 25 MO.MA will hold as support.
Another reason I think we have more downside for the COMP is because the confirmed bearish Double Top pattern that formed from the end of Nov.07 to the beginning of Jan 08 has not satisfied the downside implied by the pattern. To satisfy that pattern we would have to violate the 25 MO.MA as support which leaves us with the 50 MO.MA as the next stop down at ~2235. At this point, that seems the likely outcome, IMO.
|
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58927
- Ignore EWZuber |
1/12/2008 5:03:17 AM
I was just playing with the VIX. I don't ordinarily pay any attention to it but some guys were telling me it is relevant so I checked it out and I think I'm done now.
|
maxreturn
745 posts
msg #58930
- Ignore maxreturn |
1/12/2008 2:16:31 PM
Zuber & Niko. Respectfully disagree on usefulness of VIX. Especially if you're trying to time short term to intermediate term turns on the SPX/SPY. It has played a significant role in my success trading SPY options.
|
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58981
- Ignore EWZuber |
1/14/2008 7:29:59 PM
maxreturn, Do you use it as a market barometer? A general sentiment indicator or as a trigger?
|
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #59433
- Ignore EWZuber |
2/1/2008 5:58:05 AM
I have been watching the VIX on the Hourly Chart and it is just as predictable as any stock bouncing up against MA resistance and support.
Market technicals have me looking for a move higher tomorrow. Even though the COMP Hourly Chart is overbought, the Hourly Chart pattern support was intact at the close.
|
maxreturn
745 posts
msg #59435
- Ignore maxreturn
modified |
2/1/2008 8:21:17 AM
Zuber, sorry I missed your post of 1/14. I use the VIX more as a specific timing tool as opposed to a market barometer. I don't use it as a standalone tool but when used in combination with my own breadth indicators and other technical tools it is very powerful. Essentially what I look for is is a mutiple day high and then a bearish candlestick to signal a possible buy. If there is a consensus among my other indicators I buy. For sell signals I also wait for a multiple day low but the actual signal is not always a bullish candlestick. Some times you'll get that and the market will decline but many times, especially in a strong bull market (spx trending up above the ema50 and ema200) you are better off waiting for the VIX to start trending up or breakout above a previous pivot high (if it has been consolidating). I should add also that in addition to using it on daily charts I use it on weekly charts. As you also stated, technical tools like support and resistance work very well on the VIX too. Any other questions pls ask.
BTW...you still haven't answered a question of mine on another post. The message follows:
"Zuber, I just want to understand at what point your forecast of 35 on the VIX was confirmed. I'm assuming you first waited for the monthly stochastic to tick up, then waited for a dip of the weekly stochastic and then a turn up? Thanks again for your post."
Regards
Max
|
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #59438
- Ignore EWZuber
modified |
2/1/2008 12:11:21 PM
maxreturn, on the morning of 1/17 the VIX broke above its 10 HR.MA. In hour 2 it broke Hourly Chart TLR with a stochastic +Xover. That was a very bullish indication for the chart pointing to a big move.
That said, by the first few days of Jan.CST indicated this would happen.
|
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #59461
- Ignore EWZuber |
2/4/2008 2:05:07 AM
COMP appears to be headed higher on Monday after a rocky start. A bullish bias for a couple weeks, IMO.
|