karennma
8,057 posts
msg #82698
- Ignore karennma |
11/9/2009 1:30:07 PM
Bull market still in place.
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fortyfour
189 posts
msg #82760
- Ignore fortyfour |
11/10/2009 2:03:56 PM
Going the other way here.
Thanks again.
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TrendSurfer
109 posts
msg #82762
- Ignore TrendSurfer |
11/10/2009 2:22:19 PM
Come on fortyfour, it's 50-50 at best at this point. But have to admit the start of this post and it's sentiment may just tip the odds in your favor. All in fun guys :)
TS
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trendscanner
265 posts
msg #82767
- Ignore trendscanner |
11/10/2009 3:16:10 PM
Here's my "the market will rally through Christmas" theory. Maybe I'm crazy but here's what I think.
Given:
1. the dependency of the American economy on robust consumer spending, especially discretionary consumption
2. the high proportion of discretionary spending that occurs during the Christmas season
3. the strong desire of the "Powers That Be" (PTB) to assauge the concerns of a financially-rattled population and instill a hope that things will "return to normal" (e.g., circa 2005) any day now.
Then - the thing that the PTB most want to avoid is a stock market collapse or even major pullback right as the peak consumer buying season is about to begin in earnest. If the stock market were to tank right now, then the already rattled consumer would get even more skittish about spending money on unnecessary consumables and the upcoming Christmas selling season, which is already on thin ice and likely to underperform by historic standards, is likely to be a complete disaster, which would send the economy further down a black hole.
Based on this theory, I would expect the PTB to do whatever is necessary to keep this almost 9 month rally intact through the Christmas season. Once Christmas is over, all bets are off.
Through Christmas then, I'll continue to (cautiously) play the bull market rally game - buying the dips, selling the peaks.
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