cello13
88 posts
msg #43741
- Ignore cello13 |
5/15/2006 3:38:20 PM
Rmbs started a downtrend a few weeks ago (strong bearish divergence in CCI around $46). After building a decreasing triangle and a flag, which confirmed the downtrend, there is building a bullish divergence in CCI. What do you think? Will it change into a uptrend or just build a new flag? Any idea of a price target?
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heyen
124 posts
msg #43750
- Ignore heyen
modified |
5/15/2006 8:05:41 PM
Well many pros and cons....
Pros:
-Above average Income
-Strong interest & high volume up in January while down on low volume
-No institutional selling recorded yet
-Whole Sector is loosing
Cons:
-Heavy Insider Selling
-Negative Growth year-over-year
-above average debt ratio
Unsure:
-High/Over valuation (ranks in upper third SF's-PE Ratio wise for Semiconductors)
Dropped on earnings in april, pulled up on Q2 Guidance increase and infringement award.
That stopped a sell off. Volume low, people are unsure and nervous.
Institutions kept long position. I guess it will find support soon, at last at the MA(200).
You might be right with a reversal sign - also depending on the market. But January wont repeat.
By the way, i expect a strong day tomorrow (May 16th) so what we can see might be some kind of a unhappy doji star dingish thing.
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cello13
88 posts
msg #43753
- Ignore cello13 |
5/16/2006 2:36:12 AM
Hi Heyen
Thx for your opinion. I saw that RMBS turned upwards in the last trading hours. This should mean that experts think, that RMBS is undervalued at actual price. While going down, volume was low, as you wrote. DMA(28,-14) now around $36. Normally RMBS went over it, so it could be possible that we could see prices above $36. Yesterdays close built one of those kangorouh tails, which could mean a reversal point. Also, RMBS closed massive under Linear Regression Channel.
Think, we needed a friendly market to see $46 again. Also, RMBS needs some news or reason for speculation. People bought it because they were speculating about the infrigement case. They were not disappointed about the news from the court, but news were out and there was nothing more to speculate on.
As you said, RMBS could turn positive in todays (May, 16th) market.
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heyen
124 posts
msg #43771
- Ignore heyen
modified |
5/16/2006 1:57:47 PM
I was about to take everything back, when the QQQQ was over 1% down. I started to realize, my prediction of a strong day (compared to 4 consequent down days) was just a guess into the blue. but what happened? then it pulled up again! qqqq now at unchangged and RMBS more than 2% green!
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cello13
88 posts
msg #43772
- Ignore cello13 |
5/16/2006 2:30:25 PM
Hi Heyen
Saw, that RMBS turned upwards. On hourly charts, the new high, since it touched linear regression line, was confirmed by RSI(2) and CCI. So, I think it'll go higher again. Maybe inline the regression area (means 33$ or 34 $). I'm not sure about daily chart. RMBS is clearly under the DMA(28,-14). This could mean a huge upmove towards $40 with the right news in the background. RSI(2) and CCI are turning up too. Only volume is still low. We'll see how it'll close today. Whished, the master of DMA(28,-14), Riggs, could have a look at it ;-)) I'd be surprised about his opinion!
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stocktrader1989
11 posts
msg #43774
- Ignore stocktrader1989 |
5/16/2006 3:29:05 PM
I'm no pro, but I don't believe this is the bottom yet. I see it at around $26-$27.
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cello13
88 posts
msg #43801
- Ignore cello13 |
5/17/2006 3:31:28 AM
I didn't tell, that RMBS found the bottom yesterday. I think, it'll build a flag again and go down once more. But we'll see how the chart will develop in the next few days...
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