the_trade123
107 posts
msg #73140
- Ignore the_trade123 |
3/29/2009 9:27:27 PM
I am not sure how to put this. But usually which one precedes which? When does news come out about a company that it is strong etc? Are news items before the stocks start showing positive signs like macd improving, rsi improving or is it that once news comes out, the technicals start showing up?
Another aspect is the effect of market news. This can jolt even stocks with good technicals and good news one way or other. So when you think about it, how much statistically, would technicals even matter? One may spend 2 hrs sifting thru stocks and then find the next day morning, someone says something and market tanks, and all the technicals are void. Then you sit the same day look for stocks that have gone up purely based on technicals, mostly the ultra short etfs would be top of list (if you are lucky you will find some stock that has gone up that day) and then the next day, when market recovers from the tanking, these same etfs would tank.
So it is the broader market conditions that determine how good the stocks perform, even if technicals may look shining. Any other views/ideas?
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miketranz
961 posts
msg #73151
- Ignore miketranz |
3/30/2009 5:16:36 PM
Most market moving news comes out after hours.Let's say its positive news,by the time the public knows whats going on,the insiders who bought the stock will be selling it into a gap open.Sometimes they will accumulate stock for days before news comes out.The public always takes the bait and gets stuck on the wrong end of the trade.The market right now is very news sensitive.There are some good "Fade the gap filters" on here,so you can get yourself set up on the right side of the market.Remember,the stock market is a game of opposites,set up to pick the money out of your pockets.Whatever the news,the govt, or stock market gurus say is going to happen,take the other side of the trade.What is suppose to make sence,makes no sence.As far as technicals are concerned,they are all derived from price.Watch the price of a stock,its the only thing that really matters in reality.Most stocks follow the broad market.The strongest of sector or breed will be making new 52 week highs.As you know,there's not to much of that going on in this market.It's very difficult to make money on the long side in a bear market......
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mdl060374
94 posts
msg #73174
- Ignore mdl060374 |
3/31/2009 11:20:07 AM
"I am not sure how to put this. But usually which one precedes which? When does news come out about a company that it is strong etc? Are news items before the stocks start showing positive signs like macd improving, rsi improving or is it that once news comes out, the technicals start showing up?"
In response to this, Mike Tranz hit upon something I was going to say.. Alot of the time, if you look at a stock whose "news just hit" you can see hints of the news coming (insider knowledge) on the chart.. Not always but especially with earnings..
So in a way, the indicators begin to form the picture by reacting to this (due to this precursor trading) and paint a picture that they were responsible..
Remember, indicators are lagging, and are simply various ways of of displaying price action. Since they are derived from price, they will alwasy be a step behind..
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