TrendSurfer
109 posts
msg #60073
- Ignore TrendSurfer
modified |
2/29/2008 6:33:32 PM
I
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60077
- Ignore nikoschopen |
2/29/2008 8:38:08 PM
It sounds to me like some traders are in real denial. Obviously, they're too caught up in the web of lies pitched by the press and the pundits alike. I swear you will see the Dow30 plunging by more than 1000 points one of these days, and hopefully sooner than later.
And here's another dire prediction. I bet one of the three rating agencies will close shop when all this subprime mess is over much like Arthur Andersen was forced to exit the stage in disgrace after the burst of the tech bubble. Don't tell me that these rating agencies had no part in aiding and abetting those troubled lenders.
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petrolpeter
439 posts
msg #60084
- Ignore petrolpeter |
3/1/2008 1:10:53 AM
What a sucker's rally.We were pricing in and selling off in an orderly fashion until this fabrication happened.The house of cards can't hold up with record oil and commodity prices,deflating housing bubble,red ink banks, and possible demoncrates in the White House upon it's roof.She came down fast:
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zeezeetop
30 posts
msg #60085
- Ignore zeezeetop |
3/1/2008 4:26:38 AM
Trendsurfer said:
Back charts out a year on the S&P and check out the Multi-Month Inverted Cup and Handle.
Now turn the charts upside down and take a peek at the UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (SDS), generally equivalent to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the performance of the S&P 500 Index.
Nice handle pull back on lowering volume to the support area...
Will be interesting to see where the market decides to go, I'm set up for a move in either direction. Cowabunga...
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Take the SPY from 1995 to 2001 and compare it to the SPY from 2003 to 2008 and it looks like deja vu all over again. Agreed that PEs actually exist now compared to then but the global markets are hyper-extended with the 'global growth' story. This could colapse if investors come to their senses and realize the US consumer is tightening strings on the pocket book. Commodities are through the roof and the dollar is at all time lows. Not to be a profit of doom but in my humble opinion, Bernanke is delaying the inveitable with his rheotoric and emergency rate cuts. Let the market correct and get it over with. I'm in wait and see mode also but planning for a drop.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60094
- Ignore nikoschopen |
3/1/2008 3:49:26 PM
The escalating inflation will only invite Volker-esque grim reaper down the road. Remember the sobering experience of the early '80s?
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #60097
- Ignore EWZuber |
3/1/2008 5:26:06 PM
Technically the COMP is on the verge of a death spiral.
If support at the 50 MO.MA is violated at EoM then the market is toast. I suspect we will see it violated intra-month in March. IMO
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zeezeetop
30 posts
msg #60116
- Ignore zeezeetop |
3/2/2008 10:33:29 PM
Here is one for the lies, damn lies and statistics column. According to the talking heads, China is building a city the size of Houston, Texas every week.
To put that in perspective, Houston has 4 million people. China has 1.3 billion inhabitants. Arguably, every person in China will not move to the city, so let's put the figure at 650 million people destin for urban living. After all, there as to be a certain number of farmers and fishermen.
If you divide 650 million by 4 million then it will take 162.5 weeks or 3.125 years to fully build out China. They've been in this building boom for two years. At best, the building surge in China should end in 1.125 years or possibly after the Worlds Fair.
What happens then? Will India pick up the slack or will the other 650 million Chinese people want join the other urbanites or both? Will the current Global Growth story fade into the sunset or continue on its current course?
In any case, commodities will only get scarcer and the US consumer will continue to get squeezed. I thought DUG might be forming a head and shoulders, but it proved me..... inaccurate. KOL, DIG, USO, MOO and the like are beginning to look much better in the long term.
S&P and Russel shorts are looking good as well. Thoughts?
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minocqua2
4 posts
msg #60117
- Ignore minocqua2 |
3/3/2008 1:08:51 AM
The United States has been long over due for inflation as the dollar has sunk to new lows against almost all currencies over the past five years. In addition, the sub-prime problem will dramatically decrease consumption in the United States for many years. Lower-class and Middle-class people will not be able to treat their homes as the savings accounts they did not have and Upper-class people will be putting as much of their money away into secure savings as possible to weather this storm (ie. gold). As a result, there will be far less consumption in the United States' economy; the net income for many American companies will be dramatically lower than it was in the past five years. Finally, the Dow is due for more bearish readjustment to cope with the economic hardships to come.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60135
- Ignore nikoschopen |
3/3/2008 2:08:53 PM
Time for a wake-up call. Even CNBC is railing against the commodity bubble (gold, oil, ag).
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zeezeetop
30 posts
msg #60151
- Ignore zeezeetop |
3/3/2008 7:30:21 PM
Does this indicate the DUG call last week was........ correct? In that case I'll pull back the Kudos. Also, I meant inverted head and shoulders.
Here is the biggie, 83% of Americans believe that economy is 'only fair' to 'poor.' However, they have not yet altered their spending habits. Go figure.
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