as214
184 posts
msg #61492
- Ignore as214 |
4/15/2008 8:25:50 AM
I know that Jesse Livermore made a killing over the course of his career and then pissed it all away with some speculative bad trades on the back end of his career. So my question to you is if the greatest daytrader and short term speculator of all time ended up losing it all and put a bullet in his head what makes you think you'll have any greater success over the long haul?
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #61496
- Ignore nikoschopen |
4/15/2008 11:25:04 AM
Then you must have known that one of the biggest reasons that led to Jesse Livermore's periodic demise was the lack of strict money management, namely, not using stops. It's also worth noting that Livermore didn't "end(ed) up losing it all" at the time he put a hold in his head.
For the record, I do think I'll have a greater success over the long haul than ures truly. But thanks for the compliment nonetheless.
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6263
3 posts
msg #61518
- Ignore 6263 |
4/15/2008 8:43:06 PM
AS214-
It is good to see people contribute with ideas that work for them, so thanks for writing.
Your recent long value picks of commodities, and SSL being a foriegn company, would help insulate you from a falling dollar and hopefully will outpace inflation.
-If there is a dollar crash, will there be value in the dollars when you sell?
-If there is a broadmarket drop, what will the impact be to the long positions?
Goldbugs say there is no other "safe haven" in todays economic climate. You aren't picking overvalued stocks to short. What is your take on how one should be positioned today?
Thanks again
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as214
184 posts
msg #61551
- Ignore as214 |
4/17/2008 11:23:15 AM
AS214-
It is good to see people contribute with ideas that work for them, so thanks for writing.
Your recent long value picks of commodities, and SSL being a foriegn company, would help insulate you from a falling dollar and hopefully will outpace inflation.
-If there is a dollar crash, will there be value in the dollars when you sell?
-If there is a broadmarket drop, what will the impact be to the long positions?
Goldbugs say there is no other "safe haven" in todays economic climate. You aren't picking overvalued stocks to short. What is your take on how one should be positioned today?
Thanks again
Thank you sir for recognizing my SSL pick from over a year ago. It was a pleasure for me to recommend that to a fellow poster here who I admire a great deal. As for your question about a dollar crash..the dollar has already been crashing. I can't control that so i dont worry about it. I cant control macroeconomic issues. I take a bottoms up approach just like Buffett. I dont focus on the noise. If the market drops, I feel I am positioned well to weather the storm. Most of my long positions are in steel from over a year ago, and also Natural Gas more recently as a few months ago. Natural gas was sooo undervalued when I bought it it was the equivilant of buying oil at 20/barrel. Natural Gas is still undervalued and I will be holding my positions in it for next two-four years. Natural Gas is the only viable alternative energy, as bio and wind simply dont have the infrastructures in place to be utilized in the immediate future. My largest holding in NG ..CHK which I picked up in the low 30s is my big play here. The CEO has largely and consistently bought back shares on the open market EVEN AT 52 WEEK HIGHS.. IF THATS NOT CONVICTION I DONT KNOW WHAT IS? If CHK pulls back(AND I hope it does) from its current level I will buy more.
As for gold, I dont know too much about it because I never found a gold stock that was a value stock. I dont understand buying a gold stock for the long term either because eventually youll have to sell it for dollars anyway. If somebody was going to buy gold to me it would seem to make more sense to buy tangible, physical gold. This would also take away the inclination one might have for selling prematurely ! best of luck to you with all your endeavors!
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sumanvj
2 posts
msg #69062
- Ignore sumanvj |
11/6/2008 12:33:07 PM
I see TEX lost almost 80% of the value, I hope you sold it. I have subscribed to 5 week trial offer of VV and would like to know your insight into VV and SF combined. I would appreciate a mail from you, please mail me at john29inpitt@yahoo.com.
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