msummer2007
129 posts
msg #52876
- Ignore msummer2007
modified |
7/8/2007 1:39:08 PM
Here is a system I have backtested over a 5 year span. The results have been very encouraging. The only year the results were a bit skewed was 2003. As we all know, that was a very dark year. As with all my systems, I trade the options. This system is designed to find strong trending stocks, that have paused for a breather, before resuming their ascent. It is a quick in and out system. I have deliberately set the profit stop and stop loss tight. They are 2.5% and 4% respectively.
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pops
19 posts
msg #52880
- Ignore pops |
7/8/2007 6:30:04 PM
msummer2007---Thanks for this post. I have played with it the last couple of hours and it appears to be a very good swing trade filter. I don't know how much more you could do to improve it, but I can't wait to see what the smart people have to say. One thing I noticed is that it doesn't generally give you any stocks to buy during periods that the market is falling. If it does, you can count on the stocks being genuine winners. In that respect, the filter seems to be a self-timing filter. I like that. I may be wrong, but I believe that you can bleed a little more than 4% profit out of each stock without having to hold the stock a long time. However, I'm sure that you have looked at that angle.
Bill R.
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danglin
37 posts
msg #52882
- Ignore danglin |
7/8/2007 7:28:24 PM
Looks good. Very reliable if you run this filter on a basket of stocks that have proven to be reliable with solid fundamentals etc. Your choice....(Investors Business Daily or Vector Vest Hi VST stocks - You can email me and I will show you how to cherry pick the best stocks to trade from these sources if you already have a subscription to them. I am not telling you to subscribe just stating that if you already have a subscription I can share my secret stock sellection strategy with you).
Anyhow, Good money management is what's going to ensure you keep profits.
This filter works well in a Bull market when applied to a good selection of stocks PERIOD!!!
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kram1056
21 posts
msg #52884
- Ignore kram1056 |
7/8/2007 8:16:12 PM
Another thing you may want to try is, once the filter triggers, you wait until the next day for a follow through. Which means you buy the next day if the stock trades higher than the day it triggered. Plus put a tight stop on you play so you loss is minimal, and hopefully your gain is more. Good Luck!!
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #52887
- Ignore nikoschopen |
7/8/2007 9:47:14 PM
It's no secret among the swingers that the MA(50) serves as a fulcrum to their success. Call it a dirty secret that nobody cares to know about. However, if the MA(50) is the dirty little secret, then the MA(20) acts as the punchline.
Here's a minor tweak that I made to ure filter, which I believe would make it little more robust:
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rtucker
318 posts
msg #52895
- Ignore rtucker
modified |
7/8/2007 11:14:20 PM
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msummer2007
129 posts
msg #52896
- Ignore msummer2007 |
7/9/2007 3:23:36 AM
Thanks for the responses, as always it is enlightening to have input from a variety of knowledgeable seasoned traders. Rtucker,in follow up to your question, I believe the difference lies with the options. Seeing you have left off the price and option statement in the second system. Call me cynical, but my experience has taught me that the market is manipulated to a very large extent. The big boy's love to pin a stock to it's options.I have witnessed numerous times,(when daytrading options) that an option price will move up, although the underlying asset has not changed. Some might say this is telegraphing the direction of the stock, but I see it more often than not as a bull trap(paraphrasing Niko's apt sobriquet). When a stock has no listed options, or is lower priced(ie,below 50) the market makers clean up, hence moving the stock up and down at their own whim to make a profit. It is in the best interest of the big boy's to ravage stocks that have options attached. Making the most efficent use of their capital. With this system, I have tried to capture a strong oversold stock, where the big boy's see it as a screaming buy, and subsequently that attracts the daytraders to the participate and you have the benefit of both forces working in your favor. Danglin You hit the nail on the head. Money management is the key to any system. I have lost my fare share of USD because of very poor money management. I have traded systems that I thought were a lock, and greedily I have pursued these trading treasures. Only to have my winners with small commitments, and my losers with rather large commitments.The end result wasn't to pretty. Good luck and happy trading. Bob
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rtucker
318 posts
msg #52909
- Ignore rtucker |
7/9/2007 2:55:59 PM
Thanks for your insight. I'll see if I can put it to use in the future.
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fokane
74 posts
msg #52927
- Ignore fokane |
7/10/2007 5:04:16 AM
Just curious if you tested it with EMA rather than MA? Any significant difference?
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rtucker
318 posts
msg #53331
- Ignore rtucker
modified |
7/22/2007 9:41:20 PM
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