mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #140245
- Ignore mahkoh |
12/20/2017 4:27:51 AM
MU up 5% after earnings, those call buyers were right.
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lavapit315
47 posts
msg #140271
- Ignore lavapit315
modified |
12/20/2017 5:20:29 PM
LOW just keeps going. Looks like another big buy today too.
What's up with AGN? Bullish or bearish?
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shillllihs
6,044 posts
msg #140272
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/20/2017 6:24:57 PM
This is the only entertaining thread out here. My knowledge on options is limited but growing slowly.
Some questions are, what do you estimate the odds are of chasing one of these whales?
How long before expiration would you bail?
What are you assuming to make, 50-150%? 3 and 4 baggers don't seem likely right?
Should I be placing limit orders to get a better price?
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #140276
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/20/2017 10:36:11 PM
lavapit315
15 posts
msg #140271
- Remove message
modified 12/20/2017 5:20:29 PM
LOW just keeps going. Looks like another big buy today too.
What's up with AGN? Bullish or bearish?
I'm not too versed on Butterfly or Iron Condor so I'm not sure.
shillllihs
3,557 posts
msg #140272
- Remove message 12/20/2017 6:24:57 PM
This is the only entertaining thread out here. My knowledge on options is limited but growing slowly. Thanks Shillllihs!
Some questions are, what do you estimate the odds are of chasing one of these whales? A premium bet of over $1-5 million is 80% accuracy. Over $5 million is above 90.
How long before expiration would you bail? It depends on your risk appetite. I go for 100% when it's 3 or more months out.
What are you assuming to make, 50-150%? 3 and 4 baggers don't seem likely right? A 3-4 bagger is possible when there's a feeding frenzy or having enough time out.
Should I be placing limit orders to get a better price? I ALWAYS place a limit order, many times below the bid because EVERY stock has an intraday pullback.
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #140278
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/20/2017 10:53:18 PM
Big Option Play of the Day!
Two days ago I mentioned a nearly $11 million buy of the LOW 7/20/18 80 Calls for $10.80. The option closed today at $13, a 20% gain in only two days. Not content with this massive buy, today saw even a bigger buy! This time it's $12.2 million! Not sure if it's the same investor but this buy was for the same 7/20/18 80 Calls for $12.20.
I don't remember the last time I saw two $10 million buys in the same week in a non tech stock. This is truly almost unheard of. Break even is $92.20. LOW closed at $90.19 so it's almost already in the money. The monthly chart looks tasty. It's breaking out and just had a bullish MACD X-Over. The last such cross over in Oct 2014 saw the price move from $57.20 to a high of $76.25, a gargantuan 33.3% return! Trust me when I tell you this is the nearest certain profit trades you're ever going to see. Big boys and girls will not allow themselves to lose on one $10 million bet, much less two!!!
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shillllihs
6,044 posts
msg #140282
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/21/2017 1:17:27 AM
Hey thanx 15.
So tell me, what kind of games do they play to insure their results, and they must have some kind insider info right?
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #140292
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/21/2017 12:15:10 PM
A lot of the big buys are based on their algo programs sensing a breakout/support. Some based on "inside" info about impending buyouts/earnings. Like I've mentioned before, if you can find a massive block of options at support, it's almost a 100% win. This is their way of backing up the truck!
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #140295
- Ignore mahkoh
modified |
12/21/2017 2:28:51 PM
TWX, 15 mln worth (30 K) of July 95 calls bought. It look like a multi legged trade where also 30 K 105 calls and 82.5 puts were sold to finance the trade. Great feature of the site is that you can create a watchlist for a stock and then rerun the scan for only that stock. For future reference, the underlying traded at 91.66.
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #140298
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/21/2017 2:55:49 PM
Good eyes Mahkoh!
TWX trade is textbook Buy-Write to finance the trade. The key is the $15.6 million of the 7/20/18 95 Calls for $5.20. Break even is $100.20. The investor is telling you that this is a no brainer, but they don't think it will go above $105 as they sold the Calls. This trade is screaming for you to buy the 7/20/18 100 Calls, currently going for $2.96.
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #140306
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/21/2017 11:05:21 PM
Big Option Play of the Day!
This is more like filed under unusual options volume. Canada Goose (Goos) manufactures high end outer winter wear such as Parkas. Their parkas, while legendary ain't cheap as they go for $1000! Just like their clothing that keeps you warm & cozy, their stock has done the same for their investors of late.
With winter beginning today, an investor thinks the stock is just heating up. They spent nearly $272K on 1875 of the 1/19/18 28 Calls for $1.45. That big purchase helped the stock achieve a relative volume ten times its 90 day average.
Break even is $29.45 which after a big day it's nearly there. The option is already at $2.35 giving the investor a 62% return. No doubt, like John Paul, this investor can afford one or two of the Parkas!
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